COVID-19 Pandemic: Will the United States of America (USA) record one million (1,000,000) deaths directly attributable to SARS-COV-2 infection by May 22, 2022?
Resolved
YES
May 21
M$1,005 bet
Time-adjusted clone of https://manifold.markets/noumena/covid19-pandemic-will-the-united-st to see how people's credences change. Data for this question is drawn from the New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html), which uses figures reported by federal and state agencies. As of May 3, 2022, the current official death count is 992,424, and the daily death rate is 331, with a 14-day change of -22%.

💬 Proven correct

noumena

Rachel Shu bought M$74 of YES18 days ago

Current total 996,256, which is much higher than would be expected (about 993,700) if NYT's claimed 7-day average death rate was correct. Not sure what's causing the discrepancy.
Rachel Shu made M$20!
tcheasdfjkl

tcheasdfjkl bought M$500 of YES4 days ago

currently over a million
noumena

Rachel Shu bought M$74 of YES18 days ago

Current total 996,256, which is much higher than would be expected (about 993,700) if NYT's claimed 7-day average death rate was correct. Not sure what's causing the discrepancy.