This market seeks to predict whether xAI's Gok(https://grok.x.ai/), will release a publicly accessible API by the end of the year 2024. Participants are invited to trade shares based on their belief in the likelihood of this event occurring within the specified timeframe.
Resolution Criteria:
1. Positive Resolution: The market will resolve as "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM (UTC) on December 31, 2024, xAI's Gok officially releases a publicly accessible API. The release must be confirmed through an official announcement from xAI, either through their official website, or a tweet from a verified representative of the company.
2. Negative Resolution: The market will resolve as "No" if, by 11:59 PM (UTC) on December 31, 2024, xAI's Gok has not released a publicly accessible API. Lack of an official announcement or any form of public access to the API by this deadline will be considered as grounds for a negative resolution.
3. Verification Sources: For the purpose of resolving this market, only official communications or announcements made by xAI will be considered valid. Third-party reports or rumors, unless directly confirmed by xAI, will not be taken into account.
4. Early Resolution: In the event that xAI's Gok releases a publicly accessible API before the end of 2024, the market may be resolved early as "Yes" based on the criteria mentioned above.
Definition of Public Access: For the purposes of this market, "public access" to xAI's Gok API is defined as the availability of the API to individuals and entities in all parts of the world, without geographical restrictions. The cost of accessing the API is not a consideration for this market; the API can be either free or paid.
Access that is limited to beta testers, waitlisted users, or any form of restricted or phased rollout will not be considered as fulfilling the criteria for public access. The API must be openly accessible to all, with no requirement for pre-approval, waitlisting, or similar limitations, to qualify for a positive resolution in this market.
I have weak priors on this. But, I X.ai has not shown an interest in launching a publicly available API for Grok and have instead placed it within the Twitter app.
I want to place this at 30% but given the very high variance, I am just going to place a 1 mana bid to watch it.
@Nat I have zero clue how that happened. I am 90% confident that it was Grok when I made the market.