The market will be resolved using the official results published by the Republican Party of Iowa.
Outcome Criteria: The market will resolve to the numerical position (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.) that Vivek Ramaswamy achieves in the Iowa Caucus 2024. If Vivek Ramaswamy does not participate in the Iowa Caucus 2024, the market should resolve as ‘Not Applicable’.
The market will resolve within 5 days of the official announcement of the Iowa Caucus 2024 results.
In case of any dispute or recount, the market will be resolved based on the final decision made by the respective authority.
Any changes to the candidate’s participation status, the caucus date, or the official source of resolution will be considered during the market resolution.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ93 | |
| 2 | Ṁ52 | |
| 3 | Ṁ48 | |
| 4 | Ṁ35 | |
| 5 | Ṁ11 |
@notarealuser Margin of error in state polls historically has been 10% or greater. Vivek voters seem more likely to caucus in the snow. Former Desantis voters in Iowa seem unlikely to switch to Haley.
@DavisGlenEllis https://manifold.markets/JohnSmithcf7b/republican-primary-iowa-caucus-vote-01b2b439e179#answer-e3e8ddd419bd If the percentages here are off by a little bit then Ramaswamy gets 3rd or even 2nd.