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Resolution note: I will probably resolve this immediately after the election if Harris wins, but if she loses I will give it a bit on the theory that there is likely to be backbiting and mutual recrimination. Does anyone have any objections or questions?

I object. It would be much better to have a firm date. "If no evidence of X by 9/1/24, then Y."

But honestly, this is the kind of resolution detail that should have been considered before hitting "submit" on this question. The fact that this discussion is occurring is sloppy.

Yeah it'd be better to resolve this on the close date imo but up to you

I object. I never consented to this contract remaining unresolved long past its closing date of August 21.

Yes, I would prefer it to be resolved on the resolution date, as that's what I and many others traded on.

I think making another market with a new resolution date would be the best thing to do here.

Okay! Send unanimous, I will resolve as scheduled.

so it resolves on aug 20?

Yes. I should’ve thought more carefully when I made the market but people invested based on what I did so it would be churlish to change it now!

weird: https://x.com/MikeBenzCyber/status/1815211033394389421

Joe might be old and stubborn, but I don't see him as being so dumb as to making any fuss in the already unlikely event that this is true. He'd just quietly take the L.

I don’t think any revelation would come from him, but I could imagine a leak.

How credible would claims of a leak have to be to resolve this as YES?

I’m not sure how to quantify it, but it would have to be more than speculation on Twitter. Either carried by mainstream media source or a named individual with a plausible story. I think both are unlikely for the same reason Biden saying it are unlikely.