Rules:

If this market closes at or above 50% chance, this market resolves as YES.

If this market closes below 50% chance, this market resolves as NO.
This market has an initial subsidy of 1,000 $M.

Resolution:

This prediction market will close in a week, on October 26 at 23:59 Peru Time (GMT-5), it will be marked as resolved on October 27 after knowing the last implied probability percentage this market traded at.

Have fun!

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

6 Comments

60 Holders

153 Trades

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bought Ṁ2,000 NO

much better @rossry

filled a Ṁ4,000 NO at 4% order

Other one woulda been worth 2-3x more, but hey, done is better than perfect.

Isn't it possible to pick up 10000 shares at 23:58?

I guess you have to contend with others who try the same. Seems like a gimmick market though

@MagnusAnderson indeed, market manipulation is possible in self-fulfilling markets like this one.

I think most markets here can be influenced by human actors, but the difficulty varies on what the market is about.

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 36% order

@MagnusAnderson In fact, ALL trades in this market directly affect the outcome

bought Ṁ100 NO

another fun market :D

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Resolution:

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