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Happy to lose this bet. For me this was emotional hedging 😂

Ukrainian control peaked at around 900 sq km, now down to less than 500 sq km but still nowhere near zero.

@nikstar And insane casualties among Russians and NKs for these meagre returns of territory.

Will this resolve early? After a certain point there’s not enough time left in the year to have a continuous week before it ends.

@GleamingRhino I don’t think the week needs to fit within the year. If Ukrainians chose to pick up their stuff and leave tomorrow, this would resolve YES.

Current ISW map:

@TimothyJohnson5c16 December 7th, very little change.

Frontline Update, Deepstate claims that 586 square km are under Ukraine's control, however, ISW (Institute of the Study of War) claims more territory is under Russian control. I have both area maps and the links below. https://deepstatemap.live/en#9/51.1715943/35.1672363 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=9f04944a2fe84edab9da31750c2b15eb

sorry for the gap in updates, i had to find a new credible map since liveuamap was not updating that reigon

Apparently Manifold created a cash version of this market. It sucks that anyone outside U.S. including myself is excluded from part of this website and it makes me not want to participate in the future 👎

@nikstar I share this sentiment. Must be especially aggravating when they 'sweepify' your market!

@NicoDelon why would this be more likely now?

@datachef I'm guessing Trump getting elected ups the odds that Ukraine will negotiate and possibly withdraw from Kursk(?)

@ThomasEstabrook I'm betting that won't happen until Trump is actually in office. So if anything, they'll want to hold on to what they have in Kursk as a bargaining chip.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 yeah I agree -- just speculating on why someone might buy yes right now

@datachef why would this be less likely now?

@NicoDelon well for one they are using North Koreans rather than Russians. That eliminates any advantage of being in Russia and familiar with the territory, people, etc. Biden is gonna load Ukraine up with everything he can muster over the next few months. Etc.

@datachef But see, there is too much uncertainty and you betting it down makes it cheaper for me to bet it up.

@ThomasEstabrook Can only speak for myself, but I bought YES yesterday after a Ukrainian legislator suggested that Syrsky was making excuses for a withdrawal from Kursk. She has no inside knowledge but it was somewhat persuasive speculation

Does this include if North Korea does it?

@Pjfkh yes

Frontline update, Russia has gained 50 square miles according to liveua map in last 23 days

https://liveuamap.com/en/time/23.10.2024

Russia gains 1 mile near Novoianovka on 29th