Resolves YES if Ukraine controls <10 km² of Kursk oblast for 1 week continuously.
Resolution source will be https://x.com/Pouletvolant3 or consensus of other credible mappers.
Current state as of Aug 11
Currently occupying 850 sq km. https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-captures-garrison-town-breakthrough-114828922.html
@Kfredric my thinking is that while Russia doesn't seem too pressed to get it back Ukraine doesn't benefit that much from continuing to hold it either.
@EmanuelRylke Not saying your theory is wrong but I was thinking 37% was too high for having to both retake everything and that small region.
@Kfredric TBH I’m really not happy with this tiny strip of land impacting the resolution of this market. When it was created, Ukraine zone of control was one contiguous territory and I didn’t expected them overtaking some irrelevant piece of no man’s land.
I was thinking about changing the rules, for example
<10 km -> YES
10…30 km -> resolves to percentage: 100 - (x - 10) * 5
But on the other hand, changing rules late in the game is a bad idea.
Upd.: I decided not to change resolution criteria.
Ukraine currently holds 1263 sq/km. https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-captured-more-territory-kursk-than-russia-seized-ukraine-year-2024-8
(While being completely unrelated to the topic), this notation actually means "double factorial", which is multiplication of every second number up to n (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_factorial), i.e. 2*4*6*8*10=3,840. You need to use brackets for factorial factorial
Strategic bridge destroyed that will keep Russia from being able to respond effectively. They aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.