Resolves YES if Ukraine controls <10 km² of Kursk oblast for 1 week continuously.
Resolution source will be https://x.com/Pouletvolant3 or consensus of other credible mappers.
Current state as of Aug 11
Update 2024-27-12 (PST): - The required 1-week continuous control by Ukraine does not need to occur before the end of the year. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ53,912 | |
| 2 | Ṁ17,830 | |
| 3 | Ṁ5,135 | |
| 4 | Ṁ4,461 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3,855 |
Ukrainian control peaked at around 900 sq km, now down to less than 500 sq km but still nowhere near zero.
Will this resolve early? After a certain point there’s not enough time left in the year to have a continuous week before it ends.
@GleamingRhino I don’t think the week needs to fit within the year. If Ukrainians chose to pick up their stuff and leave tomorrow, this would resolve YES.
Frontline Update, Deepstate claims that 586 square km are under Ukraine's control, however, ISW (Institute of the Study of War) claims more territory is under Russian control. I have both area maps and the links below. https://deepstatemap.live/en#9/51.1715943/35.1672363 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=9f04944a2fe84edab9da31750c2b15eb
sorry for the gap in updates, i had to find a new credible map since liveuamap was not updating that reigon
Apparently Manifold created a cash version of this market. It sucks that anyone outside U.S. including myself is excluded from part of this website and it makes me not want to participate in the future 👎
@ThomasEstabrook I'm betting that won't happen until Trump is actually in office. So if anything, they'll want to hold on to what they have in Kursk as a bargaining chip.
@NicoDelon well for one they are using North Koreans rather than Russians. That eliminates any advantage of being in Russia and familiar with the territory, people, etc. Biden is gonna load Ukraine up with everything he can muster over the next few months. Etc.
@ThomasEstabrook Can only speak for myself, but I bought YES yesterday after a Ukrainian legislator suggested that Syrsky was making excuses for a withdrawal from Kursk. She has no inside knowledge but it was somewhat persuasive speculation
Frontline update, Russia has gained 50 square miles according to liveua map in last 23 days
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?