Not sure why this is up to 37% when Ukraine controls a strip of 11 km across a river with no bridges since late Aug as shown by the twitter this resolves from:

@Kfredric my thinking is that while Russia doesn't seem too pressed to get it back Ukraine doesn't benefit that much from continuing to hold it either.

@EmanuelRylke Not saying your theory is wrong but I was thinking 37% was too high for having to both retake everything and that small region.

@Kfredric TBH I’m really not happy with this tiny strip of land impacting the resolution of this market. When it was created, Ukraine zone of control was one contiguous territory and I didn’t expected them overtaking some irrelevant piece of no man’s land.

I was thinking about changing the rules, for example

<10 km -> YES

10…30 km -> resolves to percentage: 100 - (x - 10) * 5

But on the other hand, changing rules late in the game is a bad idea.

Upd.: I decided not to change resolution criteria.

@nikstar Don't change the rules please, people already invested based on the old ones.

@Irigi Yep, after sleeping on it, I decided not to change anything

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/09/12/russia-launches-counterattacks-to-retake-kursk-after-incursion-stalls.html

End of August update: Ukraine now controls 969 sq km (+25 in last week) in Kursk region. Meanwhile, rate of Russian advances in other areas increased significantly: +357 sq km in August (+124 in last week).

https://www.businessinsider.com/kremlin-trying-get-russians-accept-ukraine-incursion-kursk-normal-report-2024-8

Upgraded to 💠 Plus

Ukraine currently holds 1263 sq/km. https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-captured-more-territory-kursk-than-russia-seized-ukraine-year-2024-8

647 sq km according to deepstatemap.live

Still LOTS more than 10!!

True :)

10!! is way, way more than 647, or even 1263.

What??

He's making a (joke) about 10 factorial factorial, which you might interpret at (10*9*8...)*(10*9*8...-1)*(10*9*8...-2)...

(While being completely unrelated to the topic), this notation actually means "double factorial", which is multiplication of every second number up to n (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_factorial), i.e. 2*4*6*8*10=3,840. You need to use brackets for factorial factorial

Ah, so I was actually wrong, thanks!

Why, you were not, 3840 is way more than 647 and even 1263.

Ah, yes, I read that too quickly and misunderstood 10!! as 2*4*6*8, without 10 itself. Evidently, I need some rest :)

Strategic bridge destroyed that will keep Russia from being able to respond effectively. They aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/08/17/ukraine-destroys-key-bridge-in-kursk-with-us-missiles-says-russia

That river is too narrow to be a serious obstacle for troops. The Dnipro river in Kherson was a major problem for the invasion, this one won’t be.

Narrow has nothing to do with it. It’s depth that matters.

And it doesn’t look that narrow in the video.

Doesn't seem like that big a deal of a bridge