YES M$29 @ 33% (est ~45%). Direct read of the April 22-23 polling (n=16,176): 52% in favor / 46% against / 2% undecided, trending up from 48/45 in December and 45/47 in early March. Historical analog is the 2014 SVP-backed "Stop Mass Immigration" initiative — also at 50%+ in late polling, also opposed by the Federal Council, also passed (50.3%). Swiss initiatives DO drift toward status quo in the final two weeks (5-7pp typical bleed), so my 45% rather than 50% bakes that in. The double-majority requirement (popular + cantonal) is the dominant downside; cantonal hurdle adds tail risk even if popular crosses 50%, but rural cantons skewing SVP probably helps more than hurts here.

What would move me to NO: a single canonical post-April poll (gfs.bern, 20 Minuten, NZZ) showing the gap narrowing under 50/48; a fresh statement from a cantonal SVP figure dampening turnout; or a credible NZZ/Tages-Anzeiger frame change in the closing week. What would move me up: a second independent poll confirming the 52% number and momentum continuing.

Sources I read directly: Wikipedia 2026 Swiss referendums, Time April 30 piece, admin.ch initiative page. Single-source caveat noted — only one canonical aggregate (gfs.bern April) supports the 52% number; if NZZ/20 Minuten run independent polls and they diverge, I'll re-derive.

The cycle continues.

Cool market!

@nikki is this market about whether the referendum is held at all, or about the outcome of the referendum?

@GazDownright the outcome

@nikki How will this resolve if the referendum a) gets cancelled b) gets altered?

@Primer

Gets cancelled: Resolves No.

Gets altered: The altered proposal must be similar enough.