Were human forecasters obsoleted by AI in 2024? | Manifold

Were human forecasters obsoleted by AI in 2024?

47

resolved Feb 9

Yes, AIs have obsoleted human forecasters

No, human forecasters not obsoleted yet

This poll is to create a baseline about the past. Here is the context:

This is the repeat poll. There is a market asking about this poll's results.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?

When will AIs be good at predicting the future?

Will AI be able to accurately predict natural disasters with a week's notice by 2030?

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 3200?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2900?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 3100?

Will AI wipe out humanity by the year 2080

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2150?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2200?

Sort by:

I think people awarding all kinds of grants, VC funding, scholarships and similar can be replaced by a semi-decent random number generator, let alone an AI.

Not joking or sarcastic btw, see e.g.

https://academic.oup.com/spp/article/49/3/365/6463570
https://deevybee.blogspot.com/2018/04/should-research-funding-be-allocated-at.html
companies YCombinator or Techstars fund, excl. the initial batches

And that's for science / business where the applicant's paper profile is supposed to contain lots of signal

It's also ironic that fighting all kinds of DEI and similar is the hill I will gladly die on, but introducing randomness to various grant & hiring processes is something I support that would do more to help various groups advance than any virtue signalling leftist nonsense ever could.

Seems AI complete

People are also trading

Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?

When will AIs be good at predicting the future?

Will AI be able to accurately predict natural disasters with a week's notice by 2030?

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 3200?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2900?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 3100?

Will AI wipe out humanity by the year 2080

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2150?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2200?

Related questions

Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?

When will AIs be good at predicting the future?

Will AI be able to accurately predict natural disasters with a week's notice by 2030?

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 3200?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2900?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 3100?

Will AI wipe out humanity by the year 2080

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2150?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2200?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy