Conditional Market based on this Metaculus question:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20482/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/
This question will resolve as Yes if the Iranian Government credibly states that it has a nuclear weapon or has tested a nuclear weapon at any time between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2030, according to credible media reports.
Fine Print
For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.
For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).
The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) will be sufficient to resolve this question as Yes.
Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as Yes.
Click here for Trump market: https://manifold.markets/nic_kup/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030?play=true
1,000
3.00@ShakedKoplewitz conditional on Iran getting nuclear weapons, what do you think is the Prob that nuclear war breaks out?
@nic_kup note the fine print: for the purpose of this market the weapon does not need to be attached to a missle