Will Bayesian default on a loan by 2030?

Description:

This market resolves YES if, by the end of 2030, Bayesian is late by more than 45 days in repaying any loan he has taken out on Manifold.

• “Default” is defined as a repayment being overdue by at least 45 days.

• A loan is defined as an agreement where Bayesian borrows mana (or another asset tracked publicly on Manifold), with a clear, agreed-upon due date.

• I will be monitoring Bayesian’s lending activity. However, I may not catch every case immediately or with complete accuracy.

• If you believe a default has occurred, you are encouraged to provide evidence (e.g. links to loan terms, timestamps, screenshots, etc.).

• If no such default occurs by December 31, 2030, this market will resolve NO.

This market is intended to function similarly to a credit default swap:

• Buying YES is equivalent to betting that Bayesian will fail to meet a repayment deadline by 45+ days.

• Buying NO is equivalent to betting that he will repay all his loans on time (or within 45 days of the due date).

Final resolution is at my discretion but will be based on good-faith evidence and community input if disputes arise.