Resolution Criteria

Elections are expected to be held in West Bengal in March–April 2026 to elect all 294 members of the West Bengal Legislative Assembly. The market resolves to whichever party wins the most seats and forms the government. The party or alliance with a majority (at least 148 seats) forms the government. Resolution will be based on official results from the Election Commission of India (ECI) at https://eci.gov.in/.

Background

In the 2021 election, the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) formed the state government after winning 215 out of 294 seats, with Mamata Banerjee sworn in as Chief Minister. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the main opposition party, securing 77 seats, a big jump from its earlier count of 3 in 2016. Opinion polls suggest a tight race, with the incumbent AITC holding a slight edge over the BJP. Economic issues dominate voter concerns, with unemployment remaining the single biggest issue, followed closely by persistent inflation.

Considerations

The 2026 election is unequivocally a two-horse race between the AITC and the BJP, with the Left-Congress alliance likely fighting for a distant third place. Geographic divides exist: in North Bengal, the BJP holds a narrow lead in vote share, while AITC's dominance in South Bengal is overwhelming.