Will the Time Person of the Year 2023 be American?
Basic
106
31k
resolved Dec 6
Resolved
YES

Will resolve YES if all people named Time Person of the Year 2023 hold American citizenship.

Will resolve NO if all people named Time Person of the Year 2023 do not hold American citizenship.

Will resolve N/A if people both with and without American citizenship are named or if no people are named.

Those being named explicitly on the cover take precedence over who they represent, so for example 2002 would result in a YES. They haven't done this in recent years but still clarifying this just in case.

Some examples:

Sam Altman -> YES

Sam Altman representing Young Entrepeneurs -> YES

Sam Altman and ChatGPT -> YES

Xi Jinping -> NO

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin -> NO

Xi Jinping and Joe Biden -> N/A

Young Entrepeneurs -> N/A

Iran Protesters -> N/A

ChatGPT -> N/A

Artificial Intelligence -> N/A

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Are there a bunch of American Iran Protesters that I missed this year?

@KevinBlaw I admit that this is a weird case, but sticking to my definition, there are definitely some Iran protestors with American citizenship, or at least we can’t say for sure that there aren’t -> N/A

Is Barbie American?

predicted YES

@Shump #philosophy #metaphysics #whatarewedoingwithourlives

predicted YES

@Shump Wikipedia starts:

Barbie is a fashion doll created by American businesswoman Ruth Handler, manufactured by American toy and entertainment company Mattel

Could be N/A, because Barbie is not a person (although that's also up for interpretation)

Could also be NO doesn't have an American citizenship, doesn't live in America, and even Mattel is not 100% American.

I think it's a pretty interesting edge case.

predicted NO

@Shump Resolve at 75% (or the proportion of Barbies bought in the US in 2023 or something)?

predicted YES

My take would be N/A, both because of the ambiguity and because Barbie is not a single person.

predicted NO

@Shump Related:

It's kinda disturbing (IMHO), but there are real people who get surgery to look like Barbie.

What about a group of people that is all American, or a group that does not include Americans? Are those YES/NO, or N/A?

@JimHays YES/NO, I thought that would be clear. I'll edit with a precise definition shortly

@MoritzBrodel I assumed YES/NO, but wanted clarification

I asked chatGPT and it says that over 1996-2021, 6 years would have resolved NA (mixed groups), 15 yes and 19 no. So a decent estimate of base rate is 79%.

What if it's OpenAI's ChatGPT/AI in general? Does that count as American?

@blackle no citizenship, so no, for consistency's sake.

@blackle I've added clarification, if it's not a person I will also resolve NA.