(Same as https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/ai-bypass-coding-entirely-by-eoy-20, but by EOY 2026 as Elon originally predicted. Resolution criteria slightly modified from that market.)

Elon Musk is predicting this will happen by EOY 2026.

"Elon Musk predicts that AI will bypass coding entirely by the end of 2026 - just creates the binary directly AI can create a much more efficient binary than can be done by any compiler So just say, "Create optimized binary for this particular outcome," and you actually bypass even traditional coding Current: Code → Compiler → Binary → Execute Future: Prompt → AI-generated Binary → Execute Grok Code is going to be state-of-the-art in 2–3 months Software development is about to fundamentally change" see https://x.com/XFreeze/status/2021699619927781842

Resolves to YES if AI generally does as Elon Musk predicts - creating binary is more common than creating traditional code - by EOY 2026.

Resolves to NO if this is not the case.

If the answer is unclear, I will defer to a 3-judge panel of the most advanced models from OpenAI, Google and Anthropic, by quoting them the question as worded here and asking how it should be evaluated, providing no other context. I expect this to be necessary in less than 10% of cases.