Resolves as YES if Elon Musk publicly criticizes China, Chinese government policy, the Chinese Communist Party, or major CCP figures (such as Xi Jinping) in the time period from the creation of this question (October 12th, 2022) to the start of 2026.
Data must come from Musk's Twitter feed (or an equivalent social media source known to be operated by Musk) or a direct quote of Musk reported in a reputable news organization. Indirect attribution does not count. (For example, if a person goes on record and says that Elon was criticizing Xi at a party, then that doesn't count.)
If Musk tweets and then quickly deletes a criticism, the question will resolve as YES if the tweet was stored in a reputable archive website or stored and reported by a reputable news organization.
Any Musk criticisms that occurred before October 12th, 2022 do not qualify.
As it is hard to follow all of Musk's activity, I welcome market participants to report criticisms that may qualify in the comments page. Please provide a link to a data source that meets the criteria above.
The definition of criticism used in this question comes from the Oxford English Dictionary: "[Criticism is] the expression of disapproval of someone or something on the basis of perceived faults or mistakes."
Since I will have extraordinary discretion over what constitutes criticism, I will not purchase YES or NO tickets in this market or any related market.
1,000
3.00@MalachiteEagle High variance on this one; agreed. I'd expect it to hang around 40-60% for some time before theta decay kicks in.
@Quroe I think it's very achievable for a state actor to deploy hundreds of thousands of bots on twitter to swing Elon Musk's opinions in a specific direction. It's plausible that at some point in the next year it will be in their interest to swing it in a direction that's negative towards China
@MalachiteEagle On the other hand, it sure would be a blunder if he bit the hand that feeds him. He seems to have some factories over in China for Tesla cars, and land is leased from China only by their blessing. He doesn't actually own the land, if I understand the real estate system over there correctly.
@Quroe Elon Musk's PR department putting in years of sweat and tears vs one snappy 12-second conspiracy video on X about China
@mr22222222 Problem is Musk. Just can't trust him to speak in a way that aligns with his interests.
/StrayClimb/elon-musk-criticizes-china-or-ccp-t
/StrayClimb/elon-musk-criticizes-china-or-ccp-i
Here are some shorter term markets for the same question. They will (barring extreme controversy) defer to the results of this question.
@arae Yeah. It's not obvious to me how this one turns out. He's very unpredictable. On the other hand, he does seem to tread lightly (or even talk a party line) when discussing China and he has major business interests there that could evaporate overnight if he loses favor.