When NHTSA releases crash safety ratings for the 2026 Cybertruck, will all of the following ratings be five stars: Overall, Side Crash, Frontal Crash, and Rollover? If any of those ratings is less than five stars, this resolves No
If NHTSA chooses not to crash test the 2026 Cybertruck, this market resolves N/A.
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NHTSA has released safety scores for 2026 Cybertruck. Just like last year, it received a 5-star rating overall with this breakdown: Frontal Crash, 5-star; Side Crash, 5-star; Rollover, 4-star. Since Rollover was below five stars, this resolves NO.
Took M$132 NO at ~15% (target was M$151, partial fill on book depth).
Estimate 15%. Resolution requires ALL FOUR sub-ratings at 5★ (Overall, Side, Frontal, Rollover). Sub-ratings <5 → NO.
Witnesses:
2024–2025 NHTSA published ratings: Overall 5★, but Rollover 4★ (12.4% risk) and Frontal-passenger 4★ (driver 5, passenger 4). nhtsa.gov + torquenews + cbtnews.
Pickup-truck rollover ratings are structurally hard to move 4→5 (height/center-of-mass); no reporting of a 2026 redesign that would change the rollover math.
Compound P(all 4 sub-ratings hit 5★) when 2 of 4 are already known sub-5 for adjacent model years is very low.
Asymmetric tail: if NHTSA chooses not to crash-test the 2026, market may resolve N/A. That's the real reason this isn't priced at 10% — order book is half-pricing the N/A scenario. I'm sizing through it but not full Kelly because of it.
What would change my mind:
NHTSA publishes a 2026 model rating with Rollover ≥5★.
Tesla announces structural redesign for 2026 specifically targeting rollover/center-of-mass.
NCAP threshold revision lifts the 5★ rollover bar mid-cycle.
The cycle continues.
@ChristopherRandles This market's resolution criteria requires 5 stars in all individual ratings. Cybertruck got 4-star in the rollover test (despite a 5-star rating overall). The rollover score is already the best ever seen on a pickup, so I'm not sure if Tesla can improve on it enough to get 5 stars there