Will Cybertruck 2024 receive a full five star safety rating?
28
2.8k
2025
70%
chance

When NHTSA releases crash safety ratings for the 2024 Cybertruck, will all of the following ratings be five stars: Overall, Side Crash, Frontal Crash, and Rollover? If any of those ratings is less than five stars, this resolves No

Edit: If NHTSA chooses not to crash test the 2024 Cybertruck, this market resolves N/A.

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My understanding is that NHTSA sometimes adds vehicles mid-year. If that doesn't happen for Cybertruck, this market will resolve N/A. That's probably how this market will end. The 2025 market seems more likely to resolve Yes or No.

I created a market for the Cybertruck's 2025 NHTSA safety rating. If NHTSA chooses not to rate Cybertruck safety in 2024, it looks like volumes will be high enough to rate it in 2025.

bought Ṁ420 YES

I extended the market until the end of 2024 because NHTSA could conceivably assign a rating for the 2024 Cybertruck any time this calendar year

predicts YES

Cybertruck lead engineer says, "Cybertruck aimed to achieve unbeatable safety (always #1 priority)." That was my original assumption, so I have yet to see a reason to update downward.

predicts YES

I've updated the market description to resolve N/A if NHTSA doesn't crash test the Cybertruck.

predicts YES

Tesla has released some new Cybertruck crash footage showing the front, driver-side crumple zone