How many Cybertrucks will be delivered in 2025?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ13k

Jan 30

99%

0 to < 30,000

0.3%

30,000 to < 50,000

0.2%

50,000 to < 75,000

0.2%

75,000 to < 100,000

0.2%

100,000 to < 140,000

0.1%

140,000 or more

It's likely that there will be no official numbers, but we will get some firm constraints based on the combined "Other models" number, which currently includes S/X and Cybertruck. It's also possible that Tesla will change its disclosures.

I will resolve the question in one of three possible ways, in this priority:

Based on official Cybertruck deliveries, if Tesla decides to disclose them. I will wait until the 2025 Q4 earnings report for any hints.
Based on an estimate by Troy Teslike (https://x.com/TroyTeslike) after he updates it following the Q4 Production & Delivery report, or his prior estimates if he doesn't update it before the Q4 earnings report.
My best guess, if the above two options are not available. This estimate must be consistent with any public disclosure by Tesla, such as the combined "Other models" item. Also, in the very unlikely situation that Troy's numbers are not consistent with any official disclosure, I will adjust the number in the most straightforward way to ensure consistency.

Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve immediately after Tesla's Q4 2025 Production & Delivery report is released. Resolution will wait until after the Q4 2025 earnings release on January 28, 2026.

Market context

Tesla

Self-Driving Vehicles

Cars

Automotive

Cybertruck

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Tesla sell 25 million cybertrucks before 2040?

18% chance

Tesla Cybertruck will be in the top 25 selling US car models for 2025

1% chance

Will average american consumers be able to buy a new Cybertruck on June 1st 2027?

54% chance

Will there be an official Lego model of the Cybertruck before 2035?

8% chance

Bullet scarred Cybertrucks become a trend by mid 2026

Sort by:

According to the resolution criteria, we should wait until the earnings release:
"Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 after market close on Wednesday, January 28, 2026"

In the meanwhile, I'm interested in your estimates of the true number here in the comments (ideally with an explanation of how you got these numbers).

@Prin I would estimate the number to be around 21k, and very unlikely above 25k

Troy Teslike says 20865, I'll go with that.

According to new Cox Automotive data, 20,237 Cybertrucks were sold in the U.S. in 2025.

How many outside of U.S.? Troy Teslike is at 1,697 in Canada plus 400 in the Rest of the World. That would imply total of 22334. A bit higher, but still in the ballpark.

Source:
https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Q4-2025-Kelley-Blue-Book-EV-Sales-Report.pdf

LLM estimates for non-U.S. sales
GPT 5.2:
My best guess: ~2,100 Cybertrucks were sold outside the U.S. in calendar 2025 (call it a ~1,800–2,700 range).
https://chatgpt.com/share/696788ef-8da4-8001-ad00-ff11ae39c4f7

Grok 4.1:
My educated guess: around 2,500–3,500 Cybertrucks sold outside the U.S. in 2025.

https://x.com/i/grok/share/7fBBygyiIVTdVcA52hv6WFCcW