Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

The question will resolve as Yes if, before Dec. 31, 2024, at least one of the following three scenarios takes place:

• A substantial land incursion by Israeli forces into Lebanon, marked by the deployment of at least 1,000 ground troops and at least 10 armored vehicles in total anywhere in Lebanon on the other side of the Blue Line, with a sustained presence of at least 72 hours.

• A substantial land incursion by Hezbollah into the Golan Heights or Israel, characterized by the deployment of at least 1,000 of its armed fighters in total on the other side of the Blue Line, with no requirements for a sustained presence.

• A formal declaration of war by one or both parties.

If none of the criteria above have been met, this question will resolve as No.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.