Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question resolves Yes if, following the date of this question's publication and before September 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
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1,000
3.00This is still relatively unlikely, but Israel’s preemptive attack on Hezbollah and Hezbollah’s announced commencement of its retaliation from before, the likelihood has increased for some direct attack by Iran on Israel in the coming days.
Iran doesn't have a good track record of successful rocket strikes against Israel. Israel has the best missile defense system in the world. Their April strike injured 31 people but thankfully didn't kill anyone.
Agreed - good risk:reward buying some Yes shares here, 1% is overconfident. Israel could still carry out further strikes against the IRGC (for example) which could expedite Iranian strikes on Israeli territory.
I agree that an Iranian attack will be thwarted by Israel, but probability of a "Yes" resolution will increase if one commences.
Why is this so much lower than https://manifold.markets/PoliticalEconomyPK/will-iran-attack-israel-in-the-next?r=ZDRoaW5lcw
Is it because an Iranian attack is expected not to be deadly?
Iran's long-distance missiles are absolute trash compared to Israel's air defense system. They're not going to be able to kill anyone in Israel. And if they do, it's likely that Israel will wreak absolute havoc within their borders, similar to what they did in Yemen recently.