[Kalshi] Will the CDC identify a new COVID variant of concern by December 31, 2024?

COVID•Public Health•Kalshi•Pandemic•Epidemiology•CDC

253

Ṁ5.7K

Ṁ1.6K

2025

19%

chance

ALL

Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Kalshi.

Resolution criteria

If the CDC has identified a new variant of concern between Issuance and December 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution sources

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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@jskf The title and criteria don't say "COVID" anywhere, but the linked market on Kalshi does include COVID in both. Can we update this?

predicts NO

@kenakofer do you know why the title is different? For the description, I guess we could start including the "About" part as well as the rules.

predicts NO

@Eliza I'll add COVID to the title manually next time I log in on the account.

@jskf 90% that Kalshi simply changed it after the mirror, but I'm not sure if that's documented. The relevant API call now has COVID in the title.

@kenakofer Oh, I see that under markets, the entry has title "Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2024?". So I guess that's a title in the context of the parent event (which itself doesn't have the date in its title).