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Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, in the calendar year 2024, SpaceX's Starship reaches orbit. Note that "orbit" is often used in a loose manner but this question has a specific definition of orbit in the fine print below.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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