Will a French soldier in Ukraine be killed by Russia before the end of 2024?
Will a French soldier in Ukraine be killed by Russia before the end of 2024?
65
1kṀ9708
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

France is expected to deploy troops to Ukraine as soon as next week, in the capacity of "trainers." Nevertheless, these soldiers will clearly have a high bounty on their head by Russia.

This question will resolve YES if it is confirmed a French soldier was killed in Ukraine by Russia before the end of the year, by any means, including air strike. Official confirmation from the French, Ukranian, or U.S. government will be sufficient to resolve as YES. If the claim comes from Russia, conclusive proof will need to be provided as they have high incentive to fabricate it. Generally, any proof provided by Russia would need to be reported on and generally accepted by credible Western media sources.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ477
2Ṁ170
3Ṁ142
4Ṁ121
5Ṁ107


Sort by:
bought Ṁ100 NO7mo

This is more about if they are going to publish it. I don't think Russia wants to kill french soliders, just because they are french. I don't think frnch would publish it, even if someone is killed, because this would lead to an escalation, that could resolve into 3 World war. The odds, that af french solider is killed, is pretty accurate, but the chance that the French, Ukranian or US goverment would confirm it, is way lower.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules