It is being widely reported by open source intelligence sources, and the Ukrainian government, that more than 20 Russian strategic bombers have been departed from the West of the country, and are approaching known launch zones over the Caspian Sea.
This market will resolve YES if, in conjunction with these strategic bombers, there is a large scale attack on Ukraine in the next few hours. Large scale in the context of missile attacks will be defined by attacks that are significantly beyond the scope of normal Russian attacks on Ukraine. This will require more than just a few missiles being intercepted or hitting their targets, and will require more than one city being targeted. The attacks should be comparable to the types of attacks listed at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_strikes_against_Ukrainian_infrastructure_(2022%E2%80%93present), especially https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/29_December_2023_Russian_strikes_on_Ukraine. Since this is somewhat subjective, I won't bet on this market.
Sources:
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1742012878767468903
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1742020524287418718
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1742026571597099470
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@SemioticRivalry Yeah, my national news frontpage news is 'dead in Ukraine from major russian rocket attack'
@AndrewBrown It could include up to the closing time of the market, but not automatically. The description states "YES if, in conjunction with these strategic bombers, there is a large scale attack on Ukraine in the next few hours." This requires that an attack starts, in conjunction with the strategic bombers, in the next few hours. If Ukraine is continually bombarded for the next 24 hours, that would be in the time frame. But if there a lull of no bombings, that attack would be considered finished. Based on all of the information I have seen, an attack did start within the eligible timeframe, and the attack is likely still ongoing as of now.
The only thing that is left to be decided is if this qualifies as a "major attack", which I will decide likely tomorrow, considering the attack is still continuing. Keep in mind that the description requires that the attacks are 1) "significantly beyond the scope of normal Russian attacks on Ukraine" and 2) "more than one city being targeted". I tried to be as thorough as possible in this comment, but if you need more information, feel free to ask for clarity. And, feel free to post evidence one way or the other here @traders.