It is being widely reported by open source intelligence sources, and the Ukrainian government, that more than 20 Russian strategic bombers have been departed from the West of the country, and are approaching known launch zones over the Caspian Sea.

This market will resolve YES if, in conjunction with these strategic bombers, there is a large scale attack on Ukraine in the next few hours. Large scale in the context of missile attacks will be defined by attacks that are significantly beyond the scope of normal Russian attacks on Ukraine. This will require more than just a few missiles being intercepted or hitting their targets, and will require more than one city being targeted. The attacks should be comparable to the types of attacks listed at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_strikes_against_Ukrainian_infrastructure_(2022%E2%80%93present), especially https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/29_December_2023_Russian_strikes_on_Ukraine. Since this is somewhat subjective, I won't bet on this market.

Sources:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1742012878767468903

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1742020524287418718
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1742026571597099470