This market resolves YES if, in the month following the Ukrainian attack on June 1st, Russia significantly escalates its military actions in Ukraine.
"Significant escalation" may include, but is not limited to:
A notable increase in missile or drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure (e.g., energy grid, transportation, or government buildings).
The launch of a large-scale ground offensive involving substantial new deployments or attempts to capture major new territory.
The use of ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) or MRBMs (Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles) in a way that goes beyond routine or previously established patterns.
This market will resolve NO if no such significant escalation occurs by July 1st, 2025.
Minor increases in attacks, routine bombardments, or propaganda statements without accompanying military action will not count as escalation for the purposes of this market.
Sources will include reputable news outlets, government statements, and conflict trackers (e.g., ISW, BBC, Reuters).
Update 2025-06-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided further details on what constitutes a significant escalation, particularly regarding large ground offensives:
A large ground offensive, even if similar to the type listed in the market description, might not be considered an escalation if it is viewed as similar to other recent offensives and thus not a significant change from norms.
Such an offensive could still count as an escalation if it occurs in conjunction with other simultaneous escalatory actions (e.g., other offensives, ICBM attacks).
The creator will primarily look for a significant change from norms when evaluating events for escalation.
A Russian government announcement detailing their escalatory actions is a probable indicator the creator will consider.
I will not be taking part in this market
Update 2025-07-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated they are analyzing recent developments and will resolve the market by the evening of Sunday, July 7th, 2025.
Update 2025-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided their final analysis and is proceeding with the resolution. See the linked comment for their detailed reasoning.
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Sorry for the wait. The offensives at the end of June made me have to do a lot of homework.
Despite the currentlyongoing offensives and large territorialgains. The Russian movements appear to fit with their broader strategy and consistent escalation. While being larger than previous offensives these movements match with what was planned before the June 1st attack. While being significantly more complex(way more drone and missile attacks) the total troop numbers have not really increased more than what we have seen from other offensives(20-30% increase duringthe offensives).
Again sorry for taking so long to resolve. Some of the Russian media sources were really pushing their battlefield successes. Liveuamap.com shows some territorial gains but nothing too too crazy.
@AlexanderPetukhov lots of new developments have happened over the past week and a bit. Will try to make sense of this soon and make a resolution before Sunday evening. Sorry for the wait
@Gerwazinho I'm watching this along with other sources. Some Russian media claims this is the beginning of the retaliation. I'm going to keep watching and see what develops.
@DanielNielsenIC50 no, the pre planned offensives and the missile strikes being used to support them will not be counted as a significant increase.
Putin has claimed that he will retaliate for the attack. But has not yet done so
The 50k troops reported to be gathering for an attack on Sumy were already reported before operation spiderweb happened. If that attack happens it would constitute a large scale ground offensive. But it's not necessarily an escalation since it was already planned. Would it count towards your resolution criteria?
@tobiasscheuer there have been multiple large offensives in the past few months. I wouldn't consider this gathering of troops/hardware an escalation. Unless it is in conjunction with other simultaneous offensives or ICBM attacks etc. I will only resolve this yes when there is a significant change from norms. Russia will also probably making an announcement stating their actions and what they did to escalate. Thank you for the information