This market resolves YES if, in the month following the Ukrainian attack on June 1st, Russia significantly escalates its military actions in Ukraine.
"Significant escalation" may include, but is not limited to:
A notable increase in missile or drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure (e.g., energy grid, transportation, or government buildings).
The launch of a large-scale ground offensive involving substantial new deployments or attempts to capture major new territory.
The use of ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) or MRBMs (Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles) in a way that goes beyond routine or previously established patterns.
This market will resolve NO if no such significant escalation occurs by July 1st, 2025.
Minor increases in attacks, routine bombardments, or propaganda statements without accompanying military action will not count as escalation for the purposes of this market.
Sources will include reputable news outlets, government statements, and conflict trackers (e.g., ISW, BBC, Reuters).
Update 2025-06-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided further details on what constitutes a significant escalation, particularly regarding large ground offensives:
A large ground offensive, even if similar to the type listed in the market description, might not be considered an escalation if it is viewed as similar to other recent offensives and thus not a significant change from norms.
Such an offensive could still count as an escalation if it occurs in conjunction with other simultaneous escalatory actions (e.g., other offensives, ICBM attacks).
The creator will primarily look for a significant change from norms when evaluating events for escalation.
A Russian government announcement detailing their escalatory actions is a probable indicator the creator will consider.
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The 50k troops reported to be gathering for an attack on Sumy were already reported before operation spiderweb happened. If that attack happens it would constitute a large scale ground offensive. But it's not necessarily an escalation since it was already planned. Would it count towards your resolution criteria?
@tobiasscheuer there have been multiple large offensives in the past few months. I wouldn't consider this gathering of troops/hardware an escalation. Unless it is in conjunction with other simultaneous offensives or ICBM attacks etc. I will only resolve this yes when there is a significant change from norms. Russia will also probably making an announcement stating their actions and what they did to escalate. Thank you for the information