Any answer which is widely regarded as true 2 weeks after the creation of this market will resolve YES. Context: Israel just assassinated a senior Iranian leader at the Iranian embassy in Damascus Syria. This will likely lead to a harsh response.
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@traders CLARIFICATIONS ✍️:
Airstrike and strike were used interchangeably. They both refer to a weapon causing kinetic damage (even if that damage is to a random spot in the desert!). Land to land is OK, such as crusie missiles, but small hand held or short range weapons don't count. I will require that the strike actually has to hit something. If everything is intercepted it doesn't count.
People have asked whether Hezbollah's daily rocket attacks against Israel count for resolving the proxy market. The answer is no, I wouldn't make a market that would immediately have 99% probability and resolve the next day. This requires a significantly larger than usual strike if launched by a proxy that is already engaged in active combat with Israel. Alternatively, even a small strike by a proxy that rarely strikes Israel (such as the Houthis or Iraq/Syria) would resolve YES.
"Israel territory" is only land inside of the borders of Israel (according to Israel, as long as they exercise de facto control of it), not embassies abroad. I specifically added the embassy option so they would be separate.
If ANY option that is currently listed resolves YES, "nothing happens" will resolve NO.
The time has come for me to resolve the "Airstrike by Iranian proxies on Israeli territory" market. I understand that not everyone may be happy with my decision, but I am required to remain objective and not base my decisions on market pricing. Instead, I am basing my decision on the wording of the market itself and previous clarifications I made. Feel free to read on if you want my full explanation but TLDR resolves NO because there is no evidence Iranian proxies struck the territory of Israel to the extent required for a YES resolution based on the clarifications I made before the attacks.
Two weeks ago, since I was not able to fit the entire resolution criteria covering all edge cases in the short multiple choice option, I added clarifications. I said I'm "not inclined to count anti tank missiles or short range rockets, that's not the intent of the market. This would be a long range attack." and "I'm leaning towards sticking with the original wording and requiring the strike to actually hit".
5 days ago, I realized I should clarify even further and said (in a pinned comment) People have asked whether Hezbollah's daily rocket attacks against Israel count for resolving the proxy market. The answer is no, I wouldn't make a market that would immediately have 99% probability and resolve the next day. This requires a significantly larger than usual strike if launched by a proxy that is already engaged in active combat with Israel. Alternatively, even a small strike by a proxy that rarely strikes Israel (such as the Houthis or Iraq/Syria) would resolve YES."
The bolded sentence required that if a proxy is an active combat with Israel, the strike would need to be significantly larger than usual to count for this market. This is in addition to the previous criteria requiring that atleast one attack actually strikes the territory of Israel, and does not fail or be intercepted.
So I went through all of the evidence, and I found no evidence that Iranian proxies met these criteria. People have posted articles detailing that Hezbollah fired "dozens" of rockets into Israel in the day before the Iranian attack (most of which were intercepted), but this doesn't seem notable to me as a Google search for "Hezbollah fires dozens of missiles at Israel" (with dates from 1/1-4/1) shows that this happens pretty much every week. As for the Houthis, it's reported they fired "multiple drones" in coordination with Iran, but there is no evidence these struck Israel, and they've fired drones at Israel before. In the past it's been reported when they actually hit something. Since the Houthi's rarely hit something in Israel, if they did hit Israel during the period of this market, it would have counted. Lastly, There is pretty much no reported involvement from groups in Iraq & Syria.
All the evidence points at this being a Iranian operation, with very little assistance from their proxies that did not differ from those proxies previous attacks. Presumably, if Iran was interested, they could have ordered their proxies to fire hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel, likely scoring atleast one hit, and they would have been players in this attack, but that's not what happened.
Lastly, I asked ChatGPT 4 about this, and it had the same conclusion as me (for whatever this is worth).
Would this count as an air strike by an Iranian proxy? https://x.com/idf/status/1780575300646027436?s=46&t=EH8RY6pqThhG7HnB5qPjIA
@traders closed most markets but extending for 2 more days to get clarity on already existing issues:
No deaths: its been reported that the sole injured person is no longer at risk of death but I'd like to wait 2 more days to be safe since they are still hospitalized.
Proxy attacks: as I posted yesterday, I still haven't seen anything to indicate any Iranian proxies struck Israeli territory. Please provide me with a source if I am mistaken, or this market will likely resolve NO in 2 days.
@mint https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/04/13/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-irans-attacks-against-the-state-of-israel/
Earlier today, Iran—and its proxies operating out of Yemen, Syria and Iraq—launched an unprecedented air attack against military facilities in Israel. I condemn these attacks in the strongest possible terms.
@SemioticRivalry thank you, but this is nothing new, launched attack != Israeli territory being struck.
@SemioticRivalry Yeah it sounds like any Hezbollah strike would have to both be substantially larger or more numerous than usual and also have at least one confirmed hit.
@mint I feel like a N/A could be appropriate if we don't receive any information. We know airstrikes DID strike Israel, and that Iranian proxies fired theirs in a coordinated attack with Iran, but we don't know whose strikes actually hit and whose were intercepted. Or at least I'm not seeing evidence in either direction in any of these articles
@mint https://youtu.be/_mTYtZ3oiWQ?feature=shared Hezbollah certainly fired a bigger barrage than they had done for some time.
@Pjfkh They seem to have fired "dozens" on March 27th.
And then they fired 10 more several hours later
@Panfilo The link I shared from Telegraph (admittedly not a good article) makes clear that the barrage being described from Hezbollah “could” be to deplete Israeli interceptors ahead of a strike from Iran, in retaliation for the Israeli strike in Damascus on the Quds generals. This dates it as during the period when Israeli was waiting for the Iranian response, I didn’t see any statement from Hezbollah justifying this barrage (not that they always give one, although they did as you shared, on March 27th). The point on proxies is hard to define given Hezbollah semi-independence and lack of clear messaging.
Young girl seriously hurt in Iran attack remains in life-threatening condition | The Times of Israel
"A 7-year-old girl, the only person in Israel who sustained significant injuries in the unprecedented attack by Iran overnight Saturday-Sunday, remained in life-threatening condition the following day at Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba.
According to an update from the hospital, the unnamed girl underwent surgery for a serious head wound and is now in the pediatric intensive care unit."
I think we need to wait at least a few days to see if she recovers or not to resolve this market.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 agreed. The market can stay open while we get clarity on some of the points, but anything new that happens after the original close date won't count.
WATCH: IAF fighter jets down Iranian drones; footage shows minor damage to airbase | The Times of Israel
"Another Iranian ballistic missile hit a road in the Mount Hermon area of northern Israel, causing damage, the IDF added." Mount Hermon is in the Golan Heights.
@mint IDF spokesperson: “In addition to the launches from Iran, several launches were made from the territories of Iraq and Yemen.”
The question did not state that the attack from proxies must be successful.
@Lemming in the pinned clarifications comment, and other comments:
I will require that the strike actually has to hit something. If everything is intercepted it doesn't count.
"Something" being anything in Israeli territory, even an open field.