[Short Fuse] How will Iran respond to Israel's assassination of a senior IRGC leader? [ADD RESPONSES]
160
2.4K
7.4K
Apr 15
91%
Airstrike by Iranian proxies on Israeli territory
20%
Atleast one non-military Israeli citizen is killed as a result of the strikes
11%
Strike by Iranian proxies on foreign US bases
5%
Iran will attack the Shimon Peres Nuclear Research Center
1%
Any Israeli embassy is targeted by an airstrike
1%
Assassination of senior Israeli leader by Iran
1%
Ground invasion of Israel directly by Iran
Resolved
YES
Direct Iranian airstrike on Israeli territory
Resolved
YES
Airstrike by Iran on Golan Heights or West Bank (Area C), ie “grey-Israel”
Resolved
YES
Cruise missiles are launched by Iran towards Israel
Resolved
YES
Strikes are primarily directed at military targets
Resolved
YES
Ballistic missiles are launched by Iran towards Israel
Resolved
YES
>75% of attacking drones are shot down
Resolved
N/A
Respond with memes only

Any answer which is widely regarded as true 2 weeks after the creation of this market will resolve YES. Context: Israel just assassinated a senior Iranian leader at the Iranian embassy in Damascus Syria. This will likely lead to a harsh response.

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@traders CLARIFICATIONS ✍️:

  1. Airstrike and strike were used interchangeably. They both refer to a weapon causing kinetic damage (even if that damage is to a random spot in the desert!). Land to land is OK, such as crusie missiles, but small hand held or short range weapons don't count. I will require that the strike actually has to hit something. If everything is intercepted it doesn't count.

  2. People have asked whether Hezbollah's daily rocket attacks against Israel count for resolving the proxy market. The answer is no, I wouldn't make a market that would immediately have 99% probability and resolve the next day. This requires a significantly larger than usual strike if launched by a proxy that is already engaged in active combat with Israel. Alternatively, even a small strike by a proxy that rarely strikes Israel (such as the Houthis or Iraq/Syria) would resolve YES.

  3. "Israel territory" is only land inside of the borders of Israel (according to Israel, as long as they exercise de facto control of it), not embassies abroad. I specifically added the embassy option so they would be separate.

  4. If ANY option that is currently listed resolves YES, "nothing happens" will resolve NO.

Atleast one non-military Israeli citizen is killed as a result of the strikes
bought Ṁ100 Atleast one non-mili... NO

Young girl seriously hurt in Iran attack remains in life-threatening condition | The Times of Israel

"A 7-year-old girl, the only person in Israel who sustained significant injuries in the unprecedented attack by Iran overnight Saturday-Sunday, remained in life-threatening condition the following day at Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba.

According to an update from the hospital, the unnamed girl underwent surgery for a serious head wound and is now in the pediatric intensive care unit."

I think we need to wait at least a few days to see if she recovers or not to resolve this market.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 agreed. The market can stay open while we get clarity on some of the points, but anything new that happens after the original close date won't count.

Airstrike by Iran on Golan Heights or West Bank (Area C), ie “grey-Israel”
bought Ṁ207 Airstrike by Iran on... YES

WATCH: IAF fighter jets down Iranian drones; footage shows minor damage to airbase | The Times of Israel

"Another Iranian ballistic missile hit a road in the Mount Hermon area of northern Israel, causing damage, the IDF added." Mount Hermon is in the Golan Heights.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 yep, the Mount Hermon strike counts. Thanks for the link.

I haven't seen anything to indicate there was a successful strike by proxies, or that the Golan Heights or West Bank were struck yet. If anyone has sources saying otherwise, please inform me.

@mint IDF spokesperson: “In addition to the launches from Iran, several launches were made from the territories of Iraq and Yemen.”

The question did not state that the attack from proxies must be successful.

https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/hamas-israel-war-24/briefings-by-idf-spokesperson-rear-admiral-daniel-hagari/april-24-press-briefings/operational-update-by-idf-spokesperson-rear-admiral-daniel-hagari-regarding-the-successful-defense-of-israel-s-airspace-overnight/

@Lemming in the pinned clarifications comment, and other comments:

I will require that the strike actually has to hit something. If everything is intercepted it doesn't count.

"Something" being anything in Israeli territory, even an open field.

Atleast one non-military Israeli citizen is killed as a result of the strikes
bought Ṁ350 Atleast one non-mili... YES

a death of a 10yo boy is reported by Mario Nawfal space

@RanaG Not confirmed yet, think they are in critical condition

Airstrike by Iranian proxies on Israeli territory
bought Ṁ300 Airstrike by Iranian... YES

resolves yes

@SemioticRivalry I'd like to see confirmation from a reputable sources any strike actually hit

Well fuck

Even if 75% of drones are shot down, over 100 make it into Israel, which is certainly enough excuse to go to war with Iran.

Strikes are primarily directed at military targets
Ballistic missiles are launched by Iran towards Israel

Are ballistic missiles different from cruise missiles?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 yes, they are extremely different. Cruise missiles would take 2 hours to arrive while ballistic missiles would just take minutes. Ballistic = rocket powered in the beginning and then takes ballistic trajectory

@mint Shows how much I know to be betting on this...

Never doubt US intelligence agencies again. Especially when their warnings are panicking the market.

bought Ṁ50 Cruise missiles are ... YES

@riverwalk3 They were right about Russia attacking Ukraine, they were right about the terrorist attack in Russia, and they were right again here.

When was the last time they got something wrong?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Russia winning in Ukraine within weeks, 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal predictions?

@Pjfkh Good examples. So it seems like they're pretty accurate at predicting what various actors will decide to do, but much less accurate at predicting what the outcomes will be.

Cruise missiles are launched by Iran towards Israel

I've added another option that focuses specifically on cruise missiles, not drones. Keep in mind that I used the word "launch" here, so it doesn't require that the cruise missiles actually hit anything.

🚨🚨🚨 It looks like it's going to be a long night. The drones are still hours away but I am seeing sources indicating other methods of attach will be launched soon. Remember that, as clarified in an earlier comment, this market requires that the attack (whether it be drones, cruise missiles, etc) actually make it to Israel and atleast one hits something, even if it's an empty field.

sold Ṁ154 Direct Iranian airst... YES

@gpt_news_headlines Looks like it. Now if all attacks are intercepted, still could resolve “nothing done”, though I would heavily protest

@RobertSutherland Those drones are slow and could feasibly all be intercepted

@RobertSutherland That's my concern as well, but there is not enough liquidity on the market for me to sell. There is some talk that mullah will send missiles to co-arrive with the drones

@RobertSutherland I've resolved Nothing Done NO. One of the ways that Nothing Done would resolve YES is if none of the other listed markets resolved YES, but it is clear that the actions taken so far tonight, being the launch of drones from the territory of Iran, fulfill the requirements for something being done.