🏅 Top traders

@traders This market is now concluded, but your ceasefire predicting doesn't have to be. I have another market with the same terms as this but with all months going until 2025. I've subsidized it up to Ṁ2000! As far as I know it's the only market with terms that don't require a long ceasefire, you are purely predicting whether a ceasefire will be agreed to:

Resolves NO.

Seems like even in the most optimistic case, the current negotiations will take weeks.

How long will it take the IDF to clear out Rafah? They probably cannot do it in 19 days, right? They would need to if they started tomorrow.

I think the most plausible path to a yes resolution is an IDF victory.

@nathanwei I doubt an IDF victory will even happen this year.

@Shump Do you think IDF ends the war this year without a victory?

@riverwalk3 most likely. It's either a ceasefire (but probably later this year) or a war that lasts years.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-03-07-24-5657eedc005040694a9ab935ce3e39e5

Hamas says ceasefire talks will resume next week

@schlongenheim https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1765979286740316470 Unlikely Sinwar will agree to anything.

@schlongenheim This makes me go lower on this market. It decreases the chance Israel wins the war by April 1.

This one-day temp ceasefire before April 1 rates a much higher expectation than the All of Ramadan market !

What if there is a ceasefire but it is broken after less that the agreed upon duration?

@BrunoJ the desc says fighting needs to stop for only one day

@BrunoJ 24h minimum to resolve yes, is my interpretation

@BrunoJ yeah, as long as it lasts 24hr it will resolve YES, even if it's broken before the full length agreed too.

One edge case is if the ceasefire agreed to on March 31st, but 24hrs wouldn't pass until after the market closed. In that case I would resolve YES as long as 24hrs was reached, because the main purpose of the market is a ceasefire being reached.

Israel has agreed to a "framework" for deal, pending Hamas decision
https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-03-02-2024-531593c27931a2764357b6f7b11ce394

@schlongenheim Hamas will say no I think...

Israel Gaza: Biden hopes for ceasefire by next week (bbc.com)

I wonder how much this was influenced by the Uncommitted voters in Michigan?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 He walked those comments back today, so possibly quite a bit. A ceasefire seems unlikely unless Netanyahu is forced out.

Traders should be aware that there is a pretty big difference between this market and the Ramadan ceasefire market (which seems clear based on the price, but I want to clarify anyways).

This markets resolution criteria is more focused on the ceasefire itself being agreed to, not how long it actually lasts. It only has to last 1 day in this market. In the Ramadan market, it has to last nearly one month to resolve YES.

Some big limit orders available on this and the shorter Ramadan ceasefire market

“U.S. President Joe Biden signaled that a cease-fire in Gaza could be at hand, saying that Israel has agreed to pause its offensive during the upcoming Muslim holy month of Ramadan if a deal is reached to release some hostages held by Hamas. But both Israel and Hamas downplayed on Tuesday the idea that a breakthrough was imminent.”

https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-02-27-2024-e17abedeaf5a005fcd5e7095fecacb7a

Seems very hard for there to both be a ceasefire (which would probably be 6 weeks) and an invasion of Rafah by April 1.

US hopeful of Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal in ‘coming days’ (ft.com)

@chrisjbillington what is your view?

@RanaG My view is that there's six weeks until April, which is less than half the time this market has been open so far, and that googling "ceasefire" doesn't immediately show articles optimistic about one being imminent

@chrisjbillington

Here is my information set:

• US and Egypt are in the process of mediating a temporary ceasefire negotiation. Hamas is participating, but Bibi wants to invade Rafah first

• Biden and Egypt don't want Rafah invasion

• Bibi is also under public pressure to resign. A longer war helps him stay

• Israel policy has shifted to being preemptive, shifting a focus to Hezbollah

Here is what could happen:

• Bibi accepts a ceasefire and not invade Rafah in exchange for US support against Hezbollah offensive, giving each party what they want

@RanaG Top headline I see on the topic is

Gaza ceasefire hopes fade as Netanyahu rejects calls to halt Rafah offensive

Since even optimistic headlines often don't pan out, this doesn't look very promising to me

@chrisjbillington do you think it's a 50%? Or lesss?

@RanaG Gut says less, but I'm not very informed so am hesitant to bet it below 50% until more time passes.

@chrisjbillington@chrisjbillington

This article 8 hours ago is in your favour. https://on.ft.com/3OMTU5k

The extremists driving Netanyahu’s approach to war with Hamas

The extremists driving Netanyahu’s approach to war with Hamas - https://on.ft.com/3OMTU5k

@RanaG I think you're missing the fact that a ceasefire is probably political suicide for Bibi. He will lose the support of the extreme right. He will still have Gantz and possibly Lapid, but those are already wavering in their support of Bibi.

Bibi has to go for a ceasefire to happen

@Shump yeah that probably makes sense

@Shump@chrisjbillington@Shump@chrisjbillington , this scenario is becoming more realistic:

US warns Israel against ground offensive into Rafah in draft UN resolution - https://on.ft.com/3SIXRZT via @FT

Live news: Israel launches air strikes near northern Lebanese city - https://on.ft.com/3URRWnY via @FT