Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the Moon undergoes a catastrophic explosion or experiences a sudden, dramatic structural failure that destroys a significant portion of its mass on January 5, 2026. Resolution will be based on observations from NASA, ESA, or other major space agencies, as well as widespread astronomical confirmation. This market resolves NO if the Moon remains intact at the end of January 5, 2026 UTC.

Background

The Moon is a stable celestial body with no known mechanisms or external forces that would cause it to explode. There are no asteroid impacts, solar events, or other astronomical phenomena predicted for today that would threaten the Moon's structural integrity.

Considerations

An explosion of the Moon would be immediately observable from Earth and would trigger global alerts from space agencies. The absence of any such alerts or observations by the end of the day would constitute clear resolution criteria.