How many US governors will publicly support Greg Abbott superseding federal authorities at the Southern border?
16
151
465
resolved Jan 25
100%96%
>12
0.8%
<4
3%
4-6
0.5%
7-9
0.3%
10-12

This market refers to Greg’s recent invocation of “self-defense” at the border, challenging federal orders.

Governors’ support does not have to be via X to count.

The statement: https://x.com/gregabbott_tx/status/1750235544951349275

Example: https://x.com/briankempga/status/1750361294274805831

SO FAR 12:

  • Alabama

  • Florida

  • Georgia

  • Idaho

  • Tennessee

  • Montana

  • Oklahoma

  • South Dakota

  • Utah

  • Virginia

  • West Virginia

  • Nebraska

  • Louisiana

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Huckabee confirmed this market is over: https://x.com/sarahhuckabee/status/1750581732389327060

And there’s more coming… this is crazy.

@ma Y’all got until I get to the airport to finish trading

I did not verify this, but here is a claim for two more: https://x.com/benshapiro/status/1750578758354964684?s=20

sold Ṁ5 of 7-9 YES

@ma Haven’t looked at all them yet to see if all count but doing rn

bought Ṁ10 of >12 YES

@ma thanks, doing a basic news search on Google was not showing all of those. MSM is surprisingly (or maybe unsurprisingly) low-key on all of this

@AlQuinn Ya same. Made this market to force us to consolidate the info.

@ma NE Jim Pillen has declared his support here I think (not in your link yet): https://x.com/TeamPillen/status/1750568270657122481?s=20

@PhantomLordMXVI Those two + the ones from your link should be 12?

@PhantomLordMXVI dang, kinda surprised by this count when they're kinda supporting TX ignoring SCOTUS

bought Ṁ50 of >12 YES

@PhantomLordMXVI Yup that was quick

bought Ṁ3 of 7-9 YES

As a note, I think there are 14 states are supporting Operation Lone Star (directly or in spirit) so that's probably the cap on what could happen here. Not sure of the political dynamics in each state that would cause the govs in each to be more or less aggressive on this issue, but likely several face constraints that would prevent them from publicly signing on, and so >12 seems unlikely:

Arkansas

Florida

Iowa

Idaho

Nebraska

North Dakota

Ohio

Oklahoma

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Virginia

West Virginia

Wyoming

What constitutes support ? Just a public statement or some else ? what if they make a statement and take it back ? Thanks.

@TAL Public statement or legislative support specifically in reference to Abbott’s assertions of “invasion” and “self-defense”. If they delete/remove a statement, it still counts. If they issue an additional statement revoking their support, it does not count.

The current count is 3 now, right? Oklahoma, Florida, Georgia

@AlQuinn There were more than that yesterday.

@ma what are the others?

bought Ṁ20 of >12 YES

@AlQuinn Check recent comment

Does Abbott count as supporting himself?

bought Ṁ10 of >12 YES

Would e.g. a thumbs up below the post be enough to count?

@PhantomLordMXVI No. Liking the governor’s X post is not sufficient.

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