How many times will Joe Biden use any form of the word “insurrection” in his 2024 State of the Union address?
How many times will Joe Biden use any form of the word “insurrection” in his 2024 State of the Union address?
69
1.8kṀ6772resolved Mar 8
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%90%
2
5%
0
3%
1
3%
3+
Any form of the word insurrection in any tense will be counted.
For context, this market would have resolved to 1 for Biden’s 2023 address because he said “insurrectionists”; 0 for his 2022 address; and 2 for his 2021 address because he said “insurrection” twice.
If he doesn’t give a SOTU or resigns/dies before the fact the market will resolve 0.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.