MANIFOLD
Will a Global South pavilion win the Golden Lion at Venice 2026?
2
Ṁ1kṀ80
Dec 31
54%
chance

The 61st Venice Biennale opens on 9 May 2026 (preview days 6-8 May). This market resolves YES if the Golden Lion for Best National Participation is awarded to an artist from Asia, Africa, Latin America, or the Middle East.

Resolution criteria:

- Award must be announced during the opening ceremony/preview days (6-8 May 2026) or by official La Biennale announcement before 31 May 2026

- "Non-Western" defined as artists from Asia, Africa, Latin America, Middle East, or Eastern Europe

- If the pavilion represents a Western nation but features a non-Western artist, this counts as NO (the pavilion's nation determines geographic classification)

- Multi-artist pavilions resolve YES if the majority of featured artists are non-Western

Historical context: Recent Golden Lion for Best National Participation winners include Germany (2024), UK (2022), and Latvia (2019). The Biennale has shown increasing recognition of Global South perspectives in contemporary art discourse.

Market context
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