Will the temperature in my office reach 24 Celsius before the weekend?
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Ṁ100Ṁ55resolved Mar 19
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I have a device in my office that records temperature 24 hrs/day. Will it record a temperature of at least 24 Celsius before Friday at 5pm PDT?
I will do my best not to disturb the sensor or do anything unusual. I have not touched it in a couple weeks and I do not anticipate needing to do so this week. If I have strong evidence that someone has tampered with the sensor (especially for the purpose of resolving this market in a particular direction), I will resolve randomly using the implied probabilities at the latest time before any suspected tampering, or whichever resolution is most adversarial such tampering.
Potentially useful information:
- You can see the data recorded for the past month here: https://tinyurl.com/2p89j7su
- The office is located in Berkeley, CA
- The building's climate control was out of order until early last week
- Normally the sensor can get sunlight on it for a short time during the day, but last week I was out of the office and I believe the shades were down the whole time
Mar 18, 5:39pm: The temperature broke the 24C threshold at 11:19am on Wednesday the 16th. https://tinyurl.com/ye278nbu
Although I think the air temperature probably broke at its highest, I am surprised how hot the sensor got. I think it must have been sunnier in the morning that most of the recorded time before this week.
Mar 18, 5:46pm: (Sorry, I meant to say that the air temperature probably broke 24C at it's highest, not just the sensor itself)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Just did an analysis. I have done some analysis of temperature data on a friend's house over time with home-measured sensor data that he collected over years. Typically inside temperature tracks outside temperature, even with climate control / a furnace / air conditioning...although it's very difficult to generalize across all buildings. Looking at your past data and the past historical temperature in Berkley (actually it was a weather station in Oakland, but whatever, similar enough area) ... your building appears to be around 10 degrees F higher than the outside temperature during the maximums. So with the Google forecast for today, you're not going to hit that.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1n9Y_wvFYbxRqx8iRZsyClrI6wMUZJ9kxYnKHBtJ2y4s/edit?usp=sharing