Will Ukrainians admitted on Humanitarian Parole get extension in August 2025?
65
10kṀ23k
in 7 hours
17%
chance

Ukrainians admitted after August 13 2023 will get their parole expired soon. (Those who arrived before were able to switch to the Temporary Protection Status)

The procedure to extend the parole is officially active, but non have been extended thus far

Will people start getting approved extensions in August?

https://quigley.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/quigley.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/quill-7-31-25-letter-to-the-trump-administration-re-u4u-work-permit-renewals.pdf

  • Update 2025-08-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - YES if Ukrainians admitted on Humanitarian Parole are allowed to remain in the U.S. by any legal mechanism in August 2025, not only via an explicit Humanitarian Parole extension.

  • Update 2025-08-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A single case (or a few) will not suffice.

    • Resolve YES only if, in August 2025:

    • A non-trivial number of extensions are approved (roughly hundreds), or

    • There is a blanket ruling allowing expired statuses to legally remain (any legal mechanism counts).

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

@mckiev If a legal extension happened before August, would that count? Assuming it was of the period that was going to end this month. Wondering if I should be frantically searching past reports.

@Panfilo and side question, would any number of Ukrainians, even just one, be enough to resolve Yes?

@Panfilo One case won't suffice, it can be an exception or mistake even. I would resolve if there is a non trivial amount of extensions issued (in the hundreds, since I'd say 10s of thousands have applied), or if there is a blanket ruling allowing expired statuses to legally stay.

My bet (and hope) is they will find another way to extend their legal presence of Ukrainians in the US, but not through Humanitarian Parole. The main reason is that Biden initiated humanitarian parole programs, which Trump hates and wants to cancel all the admission programs started by Biden.

@AnnaMakievska I'll resolve "YES" in case parolees are allowed to stay in any legal way

@mckiev So, you won't resolve YES if Trump just won't deport them YET

15% chance

@MPEZA75 there is a way to more credibly express your opinion on this website l, you know

@mckiev I know sir

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy