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Close and pay

@MarkHamill :D

whoops. that was a big mistake

that's actually a really upsetting blunder - I meant to buy more no ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

@Pykess reminder to "point and call" your prediction market trades

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pointing_and_calling

Haley up 2%

1% 😂

earliest data’s coming in now

@mattyb 😭

@SirCryptomind at 1%, we’re tied for 2nd

@mattyb nyt needle agrees with manifold odds

@mattyb I am using Politico

Oh god this is gonna move based on 0% reporting??

@Panfilo 0.4% 🤣

Is there a first place market for IA? I've been searching for one. I need to know if Trump's odds are 96% or 98%, lol!

Suffolk
Trump 54
Haley 22
DeSantis 13
Ramaswamy 6

The fact that this market, WILL MEATBALL FINISH SECOND?, is coin flip is a historic disgrace for Ron. I can't believe he didn't come up with an excuse to drop out yet.

I love election markets where there's little to no last minute polling. Pollsters don't want to waste money if Trump is going to win big I guess. DeSantis has a tiny edge over Haley in terms of actual Iowa polls. But Haley has the momentum, but it's hard to know if Iowa matches national trend and there's little national polling since mid December. That said, last minute momentum trade is a superstition I'm betting on.

DeSantis is up by 2.7%, this seems a bit mispriced?

@mattyb December 21st was the last time a poll was added at the state level. In lieu of closer data, people are betting based on national trends.

@Panfilo yea, makes sense. With Kim Reynolds’ endorsement and him campaigning in all 99 counties, I’m wagering this will be his only minuscule hurrah.

@Panfilo their national polls are basically tied

@mattyb Ever hear of Big Mo? Desantis is on the decline, which isn't historically the best posture to attract new supporters.

@FrederickNorris oh do i have the market for you then!