Will Nikki Haley get more votes than Ron DeSantis in the Iowa Caucus?
resolved Jan 17

The 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses will be held on January 15, 2024

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:
predicted NO

Close and pay

predicted NO
bought Ṁ125 YES

whoops. that was a big mistake

predicted YES

that's actually a really upsetting blunder - I meant to buy more no ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Pykess reminder to "point and call" your prediction market trades


bought Ṁ30 of YES

Haley up 2%

bought Ṁ40 of YES

1% 😂

bought Ṁ100 of YES

predicted NO

earliest data’s coming in now

bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 59% to 36%
bought Ṁ20 of YES

@mattyb 😭

sold Ṁ34 of NO

@SirCryptomind at 1%, we’re tied for 2nd

@mattyb nyt needle agrees with manifold odds

predicted YES

@mattyb I am using Politico

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Oh god this is gonna move based on 0% reporting??

predicted YES

@Panfilo 0.4% 🤣

predicted NO

Is there a first place market for IA? I've been searching for one. I need to know if Trump's odds are 96% or 98%, lol!

bought Ṁ75 of YES

Trump 54
Haley 22
DeSantis 13
Ramaswamy 6

bought Ṁ150 YES from 67% to 71%

The fact that this market, WILL MEATBALL FINISH SECOND?, is coin flip is a historic disgrace for Ron. I can't believe he didn't come up with an excuse to drop out yet.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

I love election markets where there's little to no last minute polling. Pollsters don't want to waste money if Trump is going to win big I guess. DeSantis has a tiny edge over Haley in terms of actual Iowa polls. But Haley has the momentum, but it's hard to know if Iowa matches national trend and there's little national polling since mid December. That said, last minute momentum trade is a superstition I'm betting on.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

DeSantis is up by 2.7%, this seems a bit mispriced?

@mattyb December 21st was the last time a poll was added at the state level. In lieu of closer data, people are betting based on national trends.

sold Ṁ16 of NO

@Panfilo yea, makes sense. With Kim Reynolds’ endorsement and him campaigning in all 99 counties, I’m wagering this will be his only minuscule hurrah.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@Panfilo their national polls are basically tied

@mattyb Ever hear of Big Mo? Desantis is on the decline, which isn't historically the best posture to attract new supporters.

@FrederickNorris oh do i have the market for you then!

Comment hidden

More related questions