Will the US government shut down before the next Israel-Hamas ceasefire?
May 1
One of these seems a lot more likely right now…
Mar 22

Resolves YES if the US federal government has shut down (last happened in 2018-2019) before a bilateral Israel:Hamas ceasefire has been established, and NO otherwise.

Resolves YES the instant the government shuts down, and Resolves NO the instant both Israel and Hamas begin a cessation of violence. A formal armistice or other permanent cessation of the conflict will count as a ceasefire.

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One of these seems a lot more likely right now…

Israel taking Rafah counts as a ceasefire?

@nathanwei I assume that you’re talking about a full “conquering” situation (for lack of a better word). If that reaches a state where there is no violence afterwards, I think that would likely count same as an armistice, as it would be a “permanent cessation” of fighting.

I’m nearly certain that invading Rafah will not result in an end to violence, but there’s a chance.

@mattyb There will be isolated things here and there, but Hamas won't control or administer any territory. It will be like PIJ or ISIS nowadays.

Some other peace markets

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