Will the US government shut down before the next Israel-Hamas ceasefire?
43
258
850
May 1
9%
chance
One of these seems a lot more likely right now…
Mar 22

Resolves YES if the US federal government has shut down (last happened in 2018-2019) before a bilateral Israel:Hamas ceasefire has been established, and NO otherwise.

Resolves YES the instant the government shuts down, and Resolves NO the instant both Israel and Hamas begin a cessation of violence. A formal armistice or other permanent cessation of the conflict will count as a ceasefire.

Market will extend as needed.

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

From the mind that brought you this market, comes this market:

reposted

One of these seems a lot more likely right now…

Israel taking Rafah counts as a ceasefire?

@nathanwei I assume that you’re talking about a full “conquering” situation (for lack of a better word). If that reaches a state where there is no violence afterwards, I think that would likely count same as an armistice, as it would be a “permanent cessation” of fighting.

I’m nearly certain that invading Rafah will not result in an end to violence, but there’s a chance.

@mattyb There will be isolated things here and there, but Hamas won't control or administer any territory. It will be like PIJ or ISIS nowadays.

Some other peace markets

More related questions