Will a Mana market resolve differently from its Sweep market in 2024?
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9
Ṁ269
Jan 1
29%
chance
The Helene vs Milton damage market currently has different resolution criteria for Sweeps and Mana, and seems decently likely to have differing resolutions

On a single market, will the Sweepstakes and Mana markets resolve differently in 2024?

If one Resolves YES and the other anything else (e.g. NO, 50:50, 99:1, N/A, …etc.), this Resolves YES, same as NO + non-NO. This Resolves NO on January 1st, 2025.

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Is there a reason that [one resolving NO and the other resolving to a percentage or N/A] wouldn't count?

@Nat Nope! NO & (any non-NO Resolution) will Resolve YES!

@mattyb Awesome, am I reading the description wrong then?

@Nat idk, i added another blurb clarifying. hope that helps

@mattyb That definitely helps, my confusion was that "one Resolves YES and the other anything else" would exclude things like NO & N/A while including YES & N/A which seemed like an odd distinction

Though to add more things for you to clarify sorry:

Do misresolultions count if overturned (as asked below)?

And while very niche scenario and unlikely to happen, would resolving to two different percentages count? Eg if the sweepstakes and mana markets rounded differently and as such resolved something like 31% and 32%?

@Nat yep. 99:1 is not the same as 100:0, nor would 31:69 be the same as 32:68.

bought Ṁ25 YES

The Helene vs Milton damage market currently has different resolution criteria for Sweeps and Mana, and seems decently likely to have differing resolutions

Do misresolutions count if they are overturned?

@Nightsquared I guess misresolutions are rare enough that this doesn't change the probability

Still probably a good thing to clarify though

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