Israel:Hamas ceasefire in February? ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ
133
แน€60k
resolved Mar 1
Resolved
NO

At any point in the month of February will there be a cease in the fighting between Israel and Hamas?

Things which will cause this market to Resolve YES:

  • Israel and Hamas work out of a mutual cessation in fighting which lasts for at least 24hrs

  • Israel and Hamas end their war

Otherwise, this market will Resolve NO at the end of February 29th, 2024.

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letโ€™s try this again

@mattyb

February had ended and no ceasefire has been made

Thanks for the poll

We are quickly running out of time for this

Some other peace markets

So far the talks have effectively been "Hamas asks Israel to unilaterally withdraw from Gaza and then maybe they'll release some hostages". I don't think this is plausibly going anywhere, or even that anyone's likely to make any realistic suggestions.

@ShakedKoplewitz Neither Netanyahu or Hamas actually want one for political reasons. Itโ€™s Biden pressuring them (also for political reasons).

predicted NO

Hamas just rejected the ceasefire that was rumored to pass.

predicted YES

@riverwalk3 Source? I just read that they are still considering it.

predicted NO

@Shump Yeah apparently they are now considering it again. This was again incorrect information from earlier today.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-785095

Al Jazeera deleted their tweet. Probably still more than 50%, but it seems highly uncertain. Unless they show me the details, I don't know how they are going to resolve the fact that Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire (of at least 10 years) while Israel wants to keep fighting after the hostage are released.

predicted NO

Anyone else interested in the limit order I put down here?

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