At any point in the month of February will there be a cease in the fighting between Israel and Hamas?
Things which will cause this market to Resolve YES:
Israel and Hamas work out of a mutual cessation in fighting which lasts for at least 24hrs
Israel and Hamas end their war
Otherwise, this market will Resolve NO at the end of February 29th, 2024.
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@ShakedKoplewitz Neither Netanyahu or Hamas actually want one for political reasons. Itโs Biden pressuring them (also for political reasons).
@Shump Yeah apparently they are now considering it again. This was again incorrect information from earlier today.
Al Jazeera deleted their tweet. Probably still more than 50%, but it seems highly uncertain. Unless they show me the details, I don't know how they are going to resolve the fact that Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire (of at least 10 years) while Israel wants to keep fighting after the hostage are released.