In Hollywood, the math goes that a movie needs to make twice its budget to not be considered a flop (Hollywood math is wild, but this is to cover marketing, distribution and other “final mile” costs).

The reported budget for Joker 2 is $190-200million (per Wikipedia). Accordingly, it’d have to make at least $400M worldwide to be considered profitable.

Will Joker: Folie à Deux make less than $400M in its initial theatrical run? Is Lady Gaga’s turn as Harley Quinn going to be a flop?

Note: If there is an updated budget for the film (higher or lower), this market will continue with double the upper bound of that new range.

See other flop markets:

• /mattyb/is-wicked-going-to-be-a-flop

• /mattyb/is-gladiator-2-going-to-be-a-flop