At the end of the next Irish elections, will the Irish and Northern Irish heads of government be from the same party?
At the end of the next Irish elections, will the Irish and Northern Irish heads of government be from the same party?
11
160Ṁ2098resolved Mar 28
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The leader of Northern Ireland, the NI First Minister, is currently Michelle O’Neill (Sinn Féin).
The next general election in the Republic of Ireland must happen by 22 March 2025. After the Irish elections, will the NI First Minister and Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) be from the same party?
If Northern Ireland no longer has a First Minister after the Irish Elections, this will Resolve NO.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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