We’re talking about the IMDB rating for Dune: Part Two (2024). This will Resolve based on the ratings at the end of March 2024, and all of the true answers will Resolve YES.

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@mattyb do you know if doing a weighted average of these gives a better accuracy on the second decimal

cuz I got 8.96 which would indicate a lower prob of going down to 8.8, but idk if means crap

@Bayesian i was planning to go off what the site is showing at the number. i’m essentially relying on their rounding here…. is that going to be fraught, I hope not.

@Bayesian It doesn't work like that. 8.96 would show up as 9 so the rating is not a simple mean. Also, nowadays IMDB tries to single out and discard bot ratings in the final calculations. They might show in the breakdown but aren't used in the calculation of the final rating: https://community-imdb.sprinklr.com/conversations/data-issues-policy-discussions/fake-ratings-by-bots/62de471ec998636027ad0ea6?commentId=642c6ff719cfd465229b31f6&replyId=642df23cc7087e024ed24339

@Ziddletwix Agreed usually, but Letterboxd’s giving it a 4.6 (vs. a 9.0 on IMDb), and it’s #21 on their top list (vs. #16). Not a world of difference yet.

Where is the less than 8.8 option? These ratings tend to fall quite a bit in a few weeks after release.

@JaredAsh These options are independent. So betting NO on >= 8.8 is your option for “less than 8.8”.

(Unless you think it’s so trivial that it’ll be <8.8 that we need more precision than the current options, but I’m assuming not. Betting NO will give you great odds on <8.8$

@Ziddletwix Unfortunately, I had to bet "No" on a lot of those instead of single "yes".

@JaredAsh yea, sorry. this market isn’t designed well from the POV of someone who’s bearish on Dune

@JaredAsh You should be glad you got multiple great ways to bet on a sinking IMDB score rather than one! It’s all upside