At the end of March, what will Dune: Part Two’s IMDb rating be?
39
442
1.4K
resolved Apr 1
Still holding a 9.0 (76k review)
Mar 3
down to 8.9
Mar 8
@mattyb still at an 8.9 (231k reviews)
Mar 17
@mattyb 8.8 (250k reviews)
Mar 20
Resolved
YES
>=8.8
Resolved
YES
>=8.7
Resolved
NO
>=8.9
Resolved
NO
>=9.0
Resolved
NO
>=9.1

We’re talking about the IMDB rating for Dune: Part Two (2024). This will Resolve based on the ratings at the end of March 2024, and all of the true answers will Resolve YES.

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Can be resolved now. Was expecting it to fall to 8.7 at least.

@VaibhavGupta 8.8 was the ending score

bought Ṁ5 >=9.1 NO

down to 8.9

Still holding a 9.0 (76k review)

@mattyb still at an 8.9 (231k reviews)

@mattyb do you know if doing a weighted average of these gives a better accuracy on the second decimal

cuz I got 8.96 which would indicate a lower prob of going down to 8.8, but idk if means crap

@Bayesian i was planning to go off what the site is showing at the number. i’m essentially relying on their rounding here…. is that going to be fraught, I hope not.

@Bayesian It doesn't work like that. 8.96 would show up as 9 so the rating is not a simple mean. Also, nowadays IMDB tries to single out and discard bot ratings in the final calculations. They might show in the breakdown but aren't used in the calculation of the final rating: https://community-imdb.sprinklr.com/conversations/data-issues-policy-discussions/fake-ratings-by-bots/62de471ec998636027ad0ea6?commentId=642c6ff719cfd465229b31f6&replyId=642df23cc7087e024ed24339

opened a Ṁ1 >=8.9 NO at 23% order

@mattyb 8.8 (250k reviews)

bought Ṁ10 >=9.1 NO

We need to reject the IMDB boomers and embrace the Letterboxd virgins. I have no context for these IMDb ratings smh

malcom tucker GIF

@Ziddletwix Agreed usually, but Letterboxd’s giving it a 4.6 (vs. a 9.0 on IMDb), and it’s #21 on their top list (vs. #16). Not a world of difference yet.

Where is the less than 8.8 option? These ratings tend to fall quite a bit in a few weeks after release.

bought Ṁ5 >=9.0 NO

@JaredAsh These options are independent. So betting NO on >= 8.8 is your option for “less than 8.8”.

(Unless you think it’s so trivial that it’ll be <8.8 that we need more precision than the current options, but I’m assuming not. Betting NO will give you great odds on <8.8$

bought Ṁ20 >=8.8 NO

@Ziddletwix Unfortunately, I had to bet "No" on a lot of those instead of single "yes".

bought Ṁ2 >=9.0 YES

@JaredAsh yea, sorry. this market isn’t designed well from the POV of someone who’s bearish on Dune

bought Ṁ3 >=8.9 NO

@JaredAsh You should be glad you got multiple great ways to bet on a sinking IMDB score rather than one! It’s all upside

@JaredAsh I can add answers to the question. Is there a specific “<=“ you’d want?

@mattyb Nah, it's fine. Ziddletwix is right, it's a win-win for me.

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