The February Flop showdown: Argylle (2024) comes out on February 2nd, Madame Web (2024) will be out on February 14th. Neither’s going to do well.
Will Argylle have a better opening weekend than Madame Web (according to the links above)? Will Resolve once the actuals come in for Madame Web (the later movie).
Note that even though Madame Web opens on a Wednesday, BoxOfficeMojo reports both the extended and 3day totals. We will be using the 3day total to compare fairly with Argylle.
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https://x.com/BORReport/status/1759244010999402949?s=20
Looks like 15.15M Is projected for the 3 day weekend
With miserable reviews and a C+ from CinemaScore, we can expect a $15.6 million Fri-Sun
https://scottmendelson.substack.com/p/box-office-madame-web-bombs-while
I lost nearly M200 thinking a Spiderman spinoff couldn't do worse than Argyll.
Paramount’s musical biopic Bob Marley: One Love will tower over Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web, $30M-$35M to $20M-$25M over the six-day Valentine’s Day-Presidents Day stretch
https://deadline.com/2024/02/box-office-bob-marley-one-love-madame-web-preview-1235823356/
@MickBransfield To clarify, IIUC, this article is quoting a 6-day total, while the market refers to just Friday/Saturday/Sunday. I.e. if that article's MW forecast is correct, it's very plausible it comes in under Argylle's total. (depends on how much of the gross Deadline thinks will come on Wedn, Thurs, & Mon)
@Ziddletwix +1
Note that even though Madame Web opens on a Wednesday, BoxOfficeMojo reports both the extended and 3day totals. We will be using the 3day total to compare fairly with Argylle
@MickBransfield yea, the Thursday previews are most typically rolled into the F-Mon totals. I assume BOM will do that when reporting Madame Web’s 3day totals - they’re really quite consistent there.
@MickBransfield Yup but that's just how box office is defined. The Thursday gross is technically a "preview", even though yes it did in fact happen on Thursday. You'll find that with basically all sources. e.g. boxofficemojo doesn't even report that Thursday gross anywhere, it only exists as part of Friday.
So by the current question definition, Argylle would get to count preview (occurring on Thurs) + Fri + Sat + Sun, whereas MW counts its Fri + Sat + Sun gross. It's a bit strange, but AFAIK that's how BoxOfficeMojo will report under the weekend tab.
@mattyb oops commented at the same time, but AFAIK they probably won't include MW's Thursday grosses in the weekend, because MW doesn't have previews (the Thurs grosses will count as regular Thurs grosses). So I'm reasonably certain that BoxOfficeMojo will never include Thursday in any of its MW weekend reports. E.g. Mission Impossible on a Wedn release https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1896449537/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs the only weekend reported is strictly Fri/Sat/Sun, the Thursday gross is excluded.
@Ziddletwix (it makes the comparison mildly unfair, but that's often true, e.g. last weekend Lisa Frankenstein counted its Thursday grosses as part of the weekend, but Argylle didn't. Although if mattyb would prefer to just count up the same set of days gross manually, that's fair enough, though i'll probably sell some argylle shares here)
@Ziddletwix oh damn, it’s so hard to compare apples-to-apples here. sorry bout that y’all, I try to keep things as balanced as possible
@mattyb Totally good, it's basically impossible to avoid stuff like this. So is the final ruling that you'll use the reported weekend, including the odd bit about however they count the previews? (Or might you manually count stuff a certain way? Just want to check in case I bet any more)
@Ziddletwix yep, good to ask these questions, I’m happy to expand on how I plan to rule.
I don’t expect there to be a way to split out the Thursday night from the Thursday day totals, so I’ll just use the Domestic Opening number from BOM, accepting that it will be a smidge below the real value. I’m not going to use Wednesday’s preview here or do any custom math.