Will a cell cultured meat product be easily purchasable in the US by the end of 2024?
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Jan 2
7%
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I'll use similar criteria as the embedded question, but please note I won't consider cost.

Lab-grown meat will qualify as accessible if it meats any of these

  • available in more than 5 stores of a major grocery chain (Walmart, Kroger, Safeway, etc.) or

  • available at more than ten specialty stores or

  • can be purchased and delivered online.


    Edit 2023-09-28: If the cultivated meat has strictly limited supply this won't count.

    Some examples of things that would not count as easily accessible:

  • a piece of cultivated meat is sold on eBay

  • a website sells cultivated meat, but there's a waitlist

  • a website sells cultivated meat, but it sells out after a 24 hour period

    • However, if that website has cultivated available for a period longer than 24 hours, this would resolve YES

Unlike the embedded question that inspired this question, I'm only interested in access and not how expensive the lab-grown meat is relative to animal-sourced meat.

I won't trade in this market.

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Different parameters though I expect it to be a first signal of widespread availability:

Nowadays, lab-grown chicken can be on the menu, at least if you live in the US.

The Department of Agriculture granted its historic approval to GOOD Meat and UPSIDE Foods for cell-cultured meat. This follows FDA's safety endorsement, marking a significant milestone for the cultured meat industry. Currently, they are allowed to sell only chicken products in a limited number of restaurants, with further approvals required for beef, pork, or seafood. The regulatory green light is a vital step for these California-based companies to serve and distribute their products in the US.

The overall production process is relatively simple, says Vítor Santo, director of cellular agriculture at GOOD Meat. “The biggest challenge right now is definitely developing manufacturing capacity,” he says. UPSIDE Foods COO Amy Chen agrees. "Industrial farming has had an advantage," she says. But now that both companies have USDA and FDA approval, they can begin building the infrastructure to grow enough meat to ship products throughout the United States. (https://www.scientificamerican.com)

Furthermore, it is important to highlight that the values and increases in prices of these products that are arriving in the country are notably high. Below, I have compiled information from various sources detailing the prices that consumers have come to pay for such a product and how they have evolved over the years. Then, through a statistical analysis, the Z test was applied to evaluate the probability of paying more than $330,000 again for a gram of meat under these conditions, and the result was 6%.

predicts YES

Would being available to order at a restaurant count?

@peterpumpkin No, this doesn't count. If it did, it would already resolve YES. This restaurant offers cultivated meat, but has very limited availability.

I am sceptical there will be enough production capacity for this, even ignoring the commercial viability of production

predicts YES

@ElliotDavies Releasing the price constraint for this question makes it somewhat likely since some niche delivery service might cater to those willing to pay a high premium.