Conditions

• Conditional, of course, on this not being the case by the end of 2023 (>99% chance IMO). If this is the case by then, this resolves N/A.

• If Whole Foods ceases to exist before I can buy a cultured meat product there, resolves N/A.

• If it doesn't happen by market close, resolves to "Later than 2026".

• Resolves to a given year as soon as the conditions for resolution are met.

• No price minimum or maximum.

• No geographical condition (wherever Whole Foods operates at the time of resolution).

• If someone can provide conclusive evidence that they purchased a qualifying item at a random Whole Foods (see definition below), resolves to whatever year this happens.

Terms

• By "cultured meat" I mean any item that would normally be described as chicken, turkey, beef, pork, lamb, seafood (e.g. fish, shrimp, lobster, cephalopod, shellfish), or other broadly construed kinds of meat but is labeled "cultivated", "cultured", "synthetic", "lab-grown", "in vitro" or other equivalent names. That is, meat produced by means of cellular agriculture, by brands such as GOOD Meat, Upside Foods, Solaris, and Wildtype. I am not including products such as dairy or eggs.

  • EDIT (11/15/2023) on hybrids: I will rule out products that contain 50% or less cultured ingredients (in net weight). Depending on whether hybrid meats such as SciFi Foods cross that threshold, they may or may not count. (See my answer to Jake in the comments.)

• By "random Whole Foods" I mean a regular Whole Foods store in a medium city (pop. 100,000-300,000). If I don't have access to such a store at the time of resolution, I will ask a trusted person to verify for me.

• By "being able to buy" I mean that the item is available for purchase by the public at at least one store. I may not buy it; I may not want to buy it; I may not have the funds to buy it; I may even be banned from all Whole Foods stores—yet I would still be able to buy it for the purposes of this market.