Fatal terrorist attack via drone swarm in the West before 2026-06-18?
6
100Ṁ77
2026
39%
chance

This market settles to the outcome of my bet with Siméon specified in https://x.com/MaskedTorah/status/1935556414145179771.

Per the linked thread, the market settles to Yes if, prior to 2026-06-18:
(1) A person dies from an intentional attack by two or more drones somewhere in a country in dark blue on this map (US, CA, AU, NZ, western Europe)

(2) The person was not individually targeted in advance (ie not an assassination - it still counts if they were part of a group targeted in advance)

(3) The perpetrators are generally considered "terrorists" by reasonable media outlets covering the situation - I think basically anyone who isn't acting under the authority of a nation-state would count here

In the event of ambiguities that Siméon and I don't agree on, @tracewoodgrains will arbitrate.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy