Will Swifties save the US from communism?

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Nov 4

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This question resolves YES if Taylor Swift does not endorse Harris and Trump wins the election.
This question resolves 50%/50% if Swift endorses Harris and Trump wins the election.
This question resolves NO if Harris wins the election.
This question will be marked as N/A if either Harris or Trump drop out before election day.
Whether Swift endorses Harris or not will resolve the same way as this market.

Since #SwiftiesForTrump is going viral (no idea if that's true, but my X feed is full of ridiculous TikToks, and I’m getting a good laugh), I came across this post:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#️ Politics

#Trump

#Taylor Swift

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Since Swift has endorsed Harris, this market can only resolve 50%/50% or NO. A YES resolution is no longer possible.

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It doesn't look too good for the #SwiftiesForTrump movement. It probably lost him more votes than the endorsement itself.

[Reminder: Read the description before betting in this market. This doesn't directly influence the outcome.]

Since Swift has endorsed Harris, this market can only resolve 50%/50% or NO. A YES resolution is no longer possible.

I think this should resolve YES if Swift endorses Trump.

why?

@nikki I'm glad that it didn't happpen 🙃

reposted

nice market 🗳️

bought Ṁ500 NO

I believe that "Swift endorses Harris" and "Trump wins the election" are roughly independent events. With that assumption, YES in this market is worth P(Trump wins)*(1-0.5P(Swift endorses Harris)), which much larger markets place at ~25% right now.

I don't believe that Swift's endorsement of Harris would change much because everyone expects it, and her audience is mostly Democratic anyway. However, an endorsement of Trump (which is rather unlikely unless the trend reaches her 😂 ) has the potential to shift a lot of votes and could influence the outcome of the election. But that's more theoretical.

The "center of gravity" of Swift fans definitely leans towards Harris, and an endorsement of Harris could pull in more votes from those otherwise on the fence. But if she somehow endorsed Trump, I think the fanbase would just implode, with no cohesive group movement.

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