Why did Sam Bankman-Fried tweet “1) What” and “2) H” on the 14th November?
21
1.2kṀ928
resolved Nov 14
100%46%
He is trolling
1.5%Other
4%
A reason not mentioned here before it becomes publicly known
0.8%
@SBF_FTX has been hacked
2%
It was an incomplete scheduled thread
0.1%
He was trying to send a normal thread, hit send early, and did not amend or clarify it
0.2%
It is a coded message
1.0%
He was intoxicated
29%
It is a deliberate scheduled thread that is coming out slowly
3%
Scheduled deadman switch along the lines of "what happened to me"
1.8%
Proof of aliveness (ability to use Twitter)
6%
He is blackmailing someone
1.9%
It is an effect/result of his disorder (eg. with impulse control)
2.0%
Adderol

On the 14th November, SBF_FTX tweeted a mysterious thread, the first tweet of which was "1) What" and the second of which was "2) H".

This resolves at the reason why it happened, out of the options posted to the market before the reason becomes publicly known. If it's covered by multiple options on the market, resolves at the most specific one.

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For anyone who wants to continue betting, I have one that's still open.

H/o - https://twitter.com/dystopiabreaker/status/1592331893378535424
> oh, maybe there are deleted tweet bots that you can fool by posting a new tweet at exactly the same time you delete one. that explains his thread

https://twitter.com/illigmid/status/1592334048458084352

oh shit so the bot has actually missed the last 7 that he deleted bc of this trick?

@BenGoldhaber That makes a lot more sense. Though I'm confused about why there were so few tweets in his recent thread, and why they were so far apart temporally.

I'm going to flag this market as improperly resolved, at least until we have a better idea of what happened. This should not have been resolved so hastily based solely on a vague and confusing NYT article quote.

Shortly before the interview, Mr. Bankman-Fried had posted a cryptic tweet: the word “What.” Then he had tweeted the letter H. Asked to explain, Mr. Bankman-Fried said he planned to post the letter A and then the letter P. “It’s going to be more than one word,” he said. “I’m making it up as I go.”

So he was planning a series of cryptic tweets? “Something like that.”

But why? “I don’t know,” he said. “I’m improvising. I think it’s time.”

I'm not convinced this is actually trolling. I don't know his personality very well, but that doesn't seem in keeping with his past behavior, such as his recent apology thread.

@IsaacKing Even weirder than the thread to me is that his lawyers would let him talk to the Times at this time.

@NicoDelon That too. And he sounds so casual in that article. This is all very strange.

Nice market. Here is the one for the result of his lettered message:

@jack nice!

@ChrisLakin nevermind glitch

inspect-element reveals that all tweets so far (first 5) have been posted at exactly 000ms

eg last tweet was datetime="2022-11-14T18:25:27.000Z"

suggesting that the thread was scheduled

@ChrisLakin wait no i'm totally wrong here

@Tetraspace Looking unlikely given the existence of third and fourth tweets.

Why did Sam Bankman-Fried tweet “1) What” and “2) H” on the 14th November?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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