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MANIFOLD
Once the dust settles, will I believe "The Agency" is making good use of their time and money?
20
Ṁ370Ṁ170k
resolved Apr 22
Resolved
NO

This resolves N/A if they're mostly just doing it for fun and to be silly. If they have some specific goal they're trying to accomplish other than that - eg getting attention and users to Manifold, getting attention to some other product of theirs, trying to build a social media presence - in (likely) several months I'll judge if it seemed to be a good idea retrospectively in my opinion, and resolve based on that.

https://manifold.markets/agency?tab=questions

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先生,尘埃尚未落定

I closed it unless anyone objects to that

@jacksonpolack I object!

mx jackson pollock, the dust hasn't even begun to stir, let alone settle. the billboard launches in april. have fun staying poor

... If this isn't a joke I'll unresolve it, but I was under the impression that whole thing was over

@barak we went viral, we have funding secured, and we have a cofounder! it's manifold's decision to be a nonprofit, irrelevant, impossible-to-use crypto product. manifold is @agency too

https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1757055478440529937

opened a Ṁ20,000 NO at 98% order

@barak Can't tell if that's a joke, but reopened. I'd suggest betting on it, but we shouldn't given what happened last time.

look, i've mostly left this platform because the core team has no interest in making it a successful product. But anyone can follow along on barakgila.com or americanpolitics.notion.site

i'm 1000% serious, April is in the future, I'm leaking information to journalists, and everyone can make up their own mind as to whether spending $500 USD to troll this platform's user base was worth 6000 page views, an introduction to @Aella and the SF @standard, and myself finding a boyfriend...

i normally wouldn't dignify this type of market (why should I care what you think) with a bet, but it's probably more engaging to bet at this point.

agency, enlightenment, entertainment, intrigue--- engage

@barak oh you've locked betting. i'll just send you $42.69 USD for no reason

@barak bruh are you a chaotic jailbroken LLM or something?

@TheAllMemeingEye yes exactly. I am actually ChatGPT5, which has Q* reasoning built in.

@jacksonpolack What is your view on this as of right now with the information you got? Are you leaning towards N/A or to keep the question up and resolve it YES/NO?

By the terms of the market, it seems like - within the manic episode - barak was "trying to accomplish some marketing thing" more than he was "trying to have fun", so I think i tshould resolve yes/no based on that.

But, given the manic episode, I think the right thing to do is either N/A it or resolve it NO and then managram the money back to manifold, depending on what manifold thinks is best

@jacksonpolack Thank you ❤

bought Ṁ800 YES

i'm not gonna let the dust settle until i've sold you on joining the agency :)