
Will JEPA models become mainstream by the end of 2025?
Will JEPA models become mainstream by the end of 2025?
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JEPA is a new architecture proposed by Yann Le Cun. He believes they are the way forward in AI, eventually to outperform current approaches such as LLMs trained on next token prediction.
This resolves yes if at least one AI company will deploy a JEPA in production to deliver an AI service considered state of the art by midnight Dec 31, 2025.
The service may still be in beta but must be accessible to a reasonable number of people or businesses. It could be deployed in non customer facing roles as long as it has major impact (e.g. in robotics applied to some popular product). The company may be a new one, even a startup, but it must be clear that the product is really existing and outperforming traditional approaches.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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