Will I ever make physics camp?
5
100Ṁ1382027
29%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This resolves yes if and only if I qualify for the U.S. Physics Team at some point before I graduate from high school.
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Nice wholesome username haha
A couple clarifying questions:
How strongly do you wish to achieve this?
How many possible attempts do you have left?
How many attempts have you had so far?
How close to success were past attempts, is there a trend of improvement?
@TheAllMemeingEye 1. Kinda strongly, enough to do some practice every couple days, 2. 2, 3. 1, 4. HM(after attempting 3 full questions 💀)
@TheAllMemeingEye HM means he got top 66% ish in usapho, used to qualify for camp. 500 people qualify for usapho, of which the top 20 make camp.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.