This market predicts whether verifiable evidence confirming Kilmar Abrego Garcia's affiliation with MS-13 will emerge before May 21, 2025. Resolution will be based on official statements from U.S. or Salvadoran authorities, or credible news reports. Background: Abrego Garcia, a Salvadoran national, was deported from the U.S. in March 2025 amid allegations of MS-13 membership, which he denies. Source
Update 2025-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Based on creator feedback, reports merely detailing accusations of MS-13 affiliation, even if citing court documents from credible news sources, may not meet the threshold for concrete evidence required for a YES resolution. The evidence must be more definitive than reporting on accusations alone.
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Tattoos he has were affirmed to be consistent with MS-13 affiliation at a senate confirmation hearing https://thenationaldesk.com/news/americas-news-now/dea-nominee-confirms-validity-of-kilmar-abrego-garcias-alleged-ms-13-tattoos
@manifoldgod what by your definition would be “verified” evidence he’s in the gang? I’m not sure the gang is keeping records of membership, the US govt stating in official proceeding and other court filings of his affiliations, being arrested with other known gang members, and tattoos/clothing consistent with gang attire seems to be as clear cut as you can get, short of the guy admitting he’s a member
The government already went on record that it was a mistake
@WilliamGunn The only mistake admitted and committed was deporting him before rescinding the protective order, which is a bit of a technicality and separate matter from his gang affiliation, for which there is quite extensive, if circumstantial, evidence.