Holochain is a wonderful peer to peer, genuinely distributed smart contract system that can scale to any size and has basically optional gas fees. No one has actually used it for finance yet, as far as I'm aware. This could just be because it's still developing, and because its scalability and cheapness means it kinda lacks a hype-generating speculation opportunity, but it's not completely obvious (to me at least, as of now, but possibly to anyone) that the design is robust enough to prevent double-spends, or thefts, once it has financially motivated attackers.

The holo.fuel systems run on a mutual credit, so once that's going in a year or two, then we'll probably find out.

Resolves false if there's either:

• no major adoption for financial uses by the resolution date, seemingly as a result of a flaw having been identified or argued for (not just a result of having been unfairly ignored, or obsoleted).

• A serious incident, resulting from flaws in the core technology (not just buggy contract code), where the root cause of the incident is not credibly patched within three weeks, or where two additional incidents recur, or where the size of the market shrinks lastingly to an amount too small to be worth attacking, or where the patch requires giving up on holochain's above mentioned special qualities. The incident is either

  • an outage due to failure of a core system, lasting for six days or longer

  • a theft of over 170,000 USD

Resolves true if there's all of:

• a psuedonomous financial network within holochain, where participants aren't just being held to account by external legal systems or reputational incentives

• trading volume of at least 3 million USD per month

• for 10 consecutive months, without a serious incident

If neither of these resolutions are satisfied by the resolution date, the market will resolve N/A